Liquidations › Survival
Leverage survival
Nothing here is modelled. Every cell is one checkable question about the real price path: a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days — did the rules close it, and on which day? That is what separates this from the modelled density map, which answers a different question and needs assumptions to do it.
The same map, counted
| Leverage | Entry days | Closed within 30d | Survived | Survival rate | Median days to closure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40× · max | 90 | 85 | 5 | 5.6% | 1 |
| 33× | 90 | 83 | 7 | 7.8% | 2 |
| 27× | 90 | 80 | 10 | 11.1% | 3 |
| 22× | 90 | 73 | 17 | 18.9% | 4 |
| 17× | 90 | 59 | 31 | 34.4% | 7 |
| 13× | 90 | 50 | 40 | 44.4% | 9 |
| 10× | 90 | 44 | 46 | 51.1% | 13 |
| 7× | 90 | 31 | 59 | 65.6% | 16 |
| 5× | 90 | 29 | 61 | 67.8% | 18 |
| 3× | 90 | 0 | 90 | 100.0% | — |
| 2× | 90 | 0 | 90 | 100.0% | — |
The daily price series this is computed from (90 rows)
| Entry day (UTC) | Close | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | $77,021.00 | $74,501.00 | $78,279.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | $75,642.00 | $75,402.00 | $77,369.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | $73,741.00 | $73,718.00 | $76,195.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | $75,802.00 | $73,690.00 | $76,540.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | $76,288.00 | $74,770.00 | $76,881.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | $78,137.00 | $76,098.00 | $79,400.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | $78,226.00 | $76,910.00 | $78,649.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | $77,402.00 | $77,225.00 | $78,548.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | $77,582.00 | $77,100.00 | $77,854.00 |
| 2026-04-26 | $78,615.00 | $77,279.00 | $78,916.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | $77,320.00 | $76,363.00 | $79,434.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | $76,297.00 | $75,649.00 | $77,440.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | $75,727.00 | $74,894.00 | $77,866.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | $76,300.00 | $75,286.00 | $76,622.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | $78,189.00 | $76,283.00 | $78,900.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | $78,651.00 | $77,981.00 | $79,133.00 |
| 2026-05-03 | $78,533.00 | $78,032.00 | $79,400.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | $79,803.00 | $78,156.00 | $80,762.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | $80,862.00 | $79,754.00 | $81,767.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | $81,401.00 | $80,711.00 | $82,799.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | $79,992.00 | $79,500.00 | $81,675.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | $80,152.00 | $79,176.00 | $80,485.00 |
| 2026-05-09 | $80,620.00 | $80,087.00 | $81,038.00 |
| 2026-05-10 | $82,164.00 | $80,203.00 | $82,436.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | $81,703.00 | $80,401.00 | $82,344.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | $80,459.00 | $79,804.00 | $81,747.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | $79,283.00 | $78,735.00 | $81,271.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | $81,044.00 | $78,880.00 | $81,992.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | $79,063.00 | $78,608.00 | $81,623.00 |
| 2026-05-16 | $78,104.00 | $77,600.00 | $79,177.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | $77,431.00 | $76,700.00 | $78,562.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | $76,984.00 | $76,037.00 | $77,754.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | $76,806.00 | $76,125.00 | $77,399.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | $77,533.00 | $76,490.00 | $77,839.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | $77,587.00 | $76,700.00 | $78,174.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | $75,500.00 | $75,350.00 | $77,870.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | $76,712.00 | $74,234.00 | $77,375.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | $77,015.00 | $76,060.00 | $77,534.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | $77,282.00 | $76,867.00 | $77,865.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | $75,894.00 | $75,623.00 | $78,060.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | $74,420.00 | $74,202.00 | $76,120.00 |
| 2026-05-28 | $73,587.00 | $72,555.00 | $74,557.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | $73,431.00 | $72,476.00 | $74,300.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | $73,853.00 | $73,163.00 | $74,095.00 |
| 2026-05-31 | $73,658.00 | $73,377.00 | $74,250.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | $71,411.00 | $70,683.00 | $74,075.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | $66,732.00 | $66,169.00 | $71,412.00 |
| 2026-06-03 | $64,118.00 | $64,061.00 | $67,479.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | $63,855.00 | $61,350.00 | $64,752.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | $61,033.00 | $59,100.00 | $63,949.00 |
| 2026-06-06 | $60,861.00 | $59,459.00 | $61,508.00 |
| 2026-06-07 | $63,309.00 | $60,714.00 | $64,228.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | $63,058.00 | $62,375.00 | $64,196.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | $61,695.00 | $60,765.00 | $63,514.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | $61,481.00 | $60,733.00 | $62,827.00 |
| 2026-06-11 | $63,621.00 | $61,484.00 | $63,919.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | $63,561.00 | $62,801.00 | $64,383.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | $64,427.00 | $63,420.00 | $64,750.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | $65,720.00 | $63,648.00 | $65,780.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | $66,294.00 | $65,325.00 | $67,283.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | $65,639.00 | $65,320.00 | $66,964.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | $64,470.00 | $63,878.00 | $66,429.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | $62,935.00 | $62,235.00 | $64,771.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | $63,512.00 | $62,292.00 | $63,630.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | $64,276.00 | $63,170.00 | $64,361.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | $63,270.00 | $63,242.00 | $64,555.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | $64,012.00 | $63,270.00 | $65,587.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | $62,706.00 | $61,901.00 | $64,254.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | $61,047.00 | $59,060.00 | $63,196.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | $59,759.00 | $58,062.00 | $61,927.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | $60,074.00 | $58,308.00 | $60,726.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | $59,996.00 | $59,825.00 | $60,935.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | $59,549.00 | $58,875.00 | $60,500.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | $60,227.00 | $58,871.00 | $60,767.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | $58,603.00 | $58,160.00 | $60,248.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | $60,010.00 | $57,768.00 | $61,357.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | $61,587.00 | $59,561.00 | $62,224.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | $62,576.00 | $61,264.00 | $62,949.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | $63,127.00 | $62,319.00 | $63,460.00 |
| 2026-07-05 | $63,635.00 | $62,434.00 | $63,997.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | $64,054.00 | $61,342.00 | $64,698.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | $63,355.00 | $62,667.00 | $64,331.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | $62,283.00 | $61,550.00 | $63,750.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | $63,225.00 | $61,695.00 | $63,500.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | $64,155.00 | $62,922.00 | $64,690.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | $63,823.00 | $63,818.00 | $64,494.00 |
| 2026-07-12 | $63,780.00 | $63,642.00 | $64,297.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | $62,331.00 | $61,821.00 | $64,420.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | $65,000.00 | $62,264.00 | $65,079.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | $64,738.00 | $64,483.00 | $65,577.00 |
Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →