The 5 February 2026 BTC sweep: price ran into the bands and cleared them

What the picture actually claims

The six bars that cleared the most

Ranked by modelled notional whose level the bar's high or low crossed. This is model output against observed price — the price column is fact, the notional column is not. Each row is a two-hour bar — stamped with the hour it opens. The hourly candles are in the table below, so the same timestamp appears in both with different highs and lows.

The hour itself

The slide across the first 24 hours of this 31-hour window is the setup; the payoff is a single bar. At 6 Feb, 00:00 UTC BTC opened at $62,894, printed a low of $60,000, and closed back at $63,493 — a 4.6% excursion recovered inside sixty minutes, on 21,271 BTC of volume against a prior hourly median of 964. A wick with no close behind it is the shape a forced-seller cascade leaves: the sells are not discretionary, so they take whatever bid is there, and the price snaps back once they stop. The model puts a dense band exactly in the path of that wick, and afterwards the band is gone.

How this window was chosen

Not from memory. The model was run forward over the full hourly series Hyperliquid publishes for BTC, accumulating the modelled notional each bar's range crossed, and the windows were ranked. By 24-hour total, 5 February 2026 comes first by a wide margin, and it is also the largest volume spike anywhere in the series. The next two candidates were rises rather than falls — the same mechanism on the short side, with less force behind it. Any of them could have been drawn; this one shows the most. The 650 bars needed to redraw it are frozen in this repository.

Inputs, frozen

Change it and the bands move. That is the point of printing the assumption rather than hiding it behind a "Model 1 / Model 2 / Model 3" tab strip. The same rule across every entry day, not one event →

Every hour of the event, as traded

Hyperliquid's own candles from 5 February 00:00 to 6 February 06:00 UTC, unmodified — the event itself, hour by hour. The chart above covers a wider window (1–12 February, in two-hour bars), so these rows are the part of its input that matters most rather than all of it.

The live liquidation map → · Leverage survival — real candles, one stated rule → · BTC funding and price →