Liquidations › The 5 February sweep
Price ran into the band, and cleared it
A liquidation map is a model, and a model that is never tested is decoration. On 5–6 February 2026 Bitcoin fell from $73,139 to a $60,000 wick in thirty hours on 4× the volume a stretch that long normally carries. Below is the modelled field for that window with the observed price drawn over it. Watch the bright bands under the price end where the candles reach them.
What the picture actually claims
The six bars that cleared the most
Ranked by modelled notional whose level the bar's high or low crossed. This is model output against observed price — the price column is fact, the notional column is not.
| Bar (UTC) | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume | Modelled notional cleared |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb, 19:00 | $66,319 | $66,605 | $62,156 | $63,725 | 33,698 BTC | $205.9M |
| 5 Feb, 15:00 | $69,393 | $69,576 | $66,709 | $68,278 | 33,111 BTC | $197.1M |
| 5 Feb, 23:00 | $63,904 | $64,888 | $60,000 | $63,493 | 27,076 BTC | $159.5M |
| 3 Feb, 17:00 | $76,461 | $76,495 | $73,111 | $73,121 | 14,775 BTC | $152.4M |
| 2 Feb, 03:00 | $76,453 | $76,573 | $74,564 | $75,853 | 10,038 BTC | $115.2M |
| 6 Feb, 15:00 | $68,146 | $70,170 | $67,748 | $69,907 | 16,808 BTC | $111.1M |
The hour itself
The 30-hour slide is the setup; the payoff is a single bar. At 6 Feb, 00:00 UTC BTC opened at $62,894, printed a low of $60,000, and closed back at $63,493 — a 4.6% excursion recovered inside sixty minutes, on 21,271 BTC of volume against a prior hourly median of 964. A wick with no close behind it is the shape a forced-seller cascade leaves: the sells are not discretionary, so they take whatever bid is there, and the price snaps back once they stop. The model puts a dense band exactly in the path of that wick, and afterwards the band is gone.
How this window was chosen
Not from memory. The model was run forward over the full hourly series Hyperliquid publishes for BTC, accumulating the modelled notional each bar's range crossed, and the windows were ranked. By 24-hour total, 5 February 2026 comes first by a wide margin, and it is also the largest volume spike anywhere in the series. The next two candidates were rises rather than falls — the same mechanism on the short side, with less force behind it. Any of them could have been drawn; this one shows the most. The 650 bars needed to redraw it are frozen in this repository.
Inputs, frozen
| Input | Value | Observed? |
|---|---|---|
| Candles | 650 hourly bars, 2026-01-17 to 2026-02-14, from Hyperliquid POST /info candleSnapshot, fetched 2026-08-14 | observed |
| Drawn window | 1–12 February 2026, aggregated to 2-hour bars (138 columns) | observed |
| Warm-up | 168 bars — 14 days — of book built off-screen before the first drawn column | assumed |
| Maintenance margin | 1.250%, from Hyperliquid's tier 1 at 40× max leverage | observed |
| Modelled book size | $2.57B — open interest when this file was frozen on 2026-08-14. Historical open interest is not published, so this sets the model's scale, not its shape. | assumed |
| Leverage mix | Balanced — Weight spread across the range, tilted slightly to the middle. A deliberately unopinionated default. | assumed |
| Drawn price range | $57,990 – $81,296, set by the traded range. 54.82% of modelled notional liquidates outside it. | observed |
Change it and the bands move. That is the point of printing the assumption rather than hiding it behind a "Model 1 / Model 2 / Model 3" tab strip.
Every hour of the event, as traded
Hyperliquid's own candles from 5 February 00:00 to 6 February 06:00 UTC, unmodified. The chart above is drawn from these.
| Hour (UTC) | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume (BTC) | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb, 00:00 | $73,139 | $73,306 | $72,721 | $72,825 | 1,859 | 1.9× |
| 5 Feb, 01:00 | $72,827 | $73,310 | $71,955 | $72,371 | 2,701 | 2.8× |
| 5 Feb, 02:00 | $72,377 | $72,804 | $71,265 | $71,452 | 4,630 | 4.8× |
| 5 Feb, 03:00 | $71,452 | $71,845 | $71,121 | $71,202 | 3,153 | 3.3× |
| 5 Feb, 04:00 | $71,202 | $71,410 | $70,687 | $70,860 | 4,393 | 4.6× |
| 5 Feb, 05:00 | $70,852 | $71,139 | $70,114 | $70,715 | 4,740 | 4.9× |
| 5 Feb, 06:00 | $70,717 | $70,969 | $70,443 | $70,938 | 2,265 | 2.3× |
| 5 Feb, 07:00 | $70,938 | $71,594 | $70,634 | $70,725 | 2,982 | 3.1× |
| 5 Feb, 08:00 | $70,730 | $71,536 | $70,665 | $71,042 | 1,748 | 1.8× |
| 5 Feb, 09:00 | $71,042 | $71,956 | $71,041 | $71,552 | 1,422 | 1.5× |
| 5 Feb, 10:00 | $71,552 | $71,716 | $70,630 | $70,842 | 1,583 | 1.6× |
| 5 Feb, 11:00 | $70,842 | $71,038 | $69,886 | $70,298 | 4,778 | 5.0× |
| 5 Feb, 12:00 | $70,299 | $70,577 | $69,149 | $69,555 | 8,510 | 8.8× |
| 5 Feb, 13:00 | $69,557 | $69,840 | $69,250 | $69,680 | 3,256 | 3.4× |
| 5 Feb, 14:00 | $69,680 | $70,853 | $69,278 | $69,392 | 9,502 | 9.9× |
| 5 Feb, 15:00 | $69,393 | $69,576 | $66,709 | $67,465 | 24,742 | 25.7× |
| 5 Feb, 16:00 | $67,465 | $68,700 | $66,926 | $68,278 | 8,369 | 8.7× |
| 5 Feb, 17:00 | $68,279 | $68,341 | $66,146 | $66,175 | 10,849 | 11.3× |
| 5 Feb, 18:00 | $66,175 | $66,527 | $65,364 | $66,316 | 9,745 | 10.1× |
| 5 Feb, 19:00 | $66,319 | $66,605 | $65,160 | $65,235 | 7,328 | 7.6× |
| 5 Feb, 20:00 | $65,235 | $65,671 | $62,156 | $63,725 | 26,370 | 27.4× |
| 5 Feb, 21:00 | $63,726 | $64,721 | $62,879 | $63,216 | 13,247 | 13.7× |
| 5 Feb, 22:00 | $63,216 | $64,585 | $62,665 | $63,904 | 10,301 | 10.7× |
| 5 Feb, 23:00 | $63,904 | $64,888 | $62,690 | $62,894 | 5,805 | 6.0× |
| 6 Feb, 00:00 | $62,894 | $63,836 | $60,000 | $63,493 | 21,271 | 22.1× |
| 6 Feb, 01:00 | $63,491 | $65,730 | $63,481 | $65,667 | 7,362 | 7.6× |
| 6 Feb, 02:00 | $65,668 | $65,968 | $64,207 | $64,965 | 5,955 | 6.2× |
| 6 Feb, 03:00 | $64,967 | $65,131 | $63,730 | $64,133 | 3,438 | 3.6× |
| 6 Feb, 04:00 | $64,131 | $64,987 | $63,918 | $64,884 | 1,357 | 1.4× |
| 6 Feb, 05:00 | $64,883 | $66,794 | $64,763 | $66,374 | 4,005 | 4.2× |
| 6 Feb, 06:00 | $66,369 | $66,741 | $64,789 | $64,935 | 3,597 | 3.7× |
The live liquidation map → · Leverage survival — nothing modelled → · BTC funding and price →