Liquidations › Survival

ADA leverage survival

Across 90 ADA daily closes, 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, a 30-day long at 10× would have been closed out on 66 of them, 73.33% — while 2× survived every one. The prices are real; the closing rule is a model. Both come from Hyperliquid — its candles, and its margin table. Every cell asks one checkable question about an observed price path — a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days: did the maintenance-margin threshold get crossed, and on which day? No price here is simulated. But deciding that a position would have closed takes assumptions, and they are listed below rather than left implicit. That is a smaller set than the density map needs, which is the honest version of the claim this paragraph used to make.

Not investment advice — modelled figures from stated assumptions. Terms and disclaimer

ADA daily candles from Hyperliquid — real traded days only; the venue's pre-launch backfill carries zero volume and is excluded. Entry days 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, each with a complete 30-day window, so no column is flattered by having had less time to fail.

The same map, counted

Leverage	Entry days tested	Closed within 30d	Survived	Survival rate	Median days to closure
10× · max	90	66	24	26.7%	3
9×	90	61	29	32.2%	4
7×	90	42	48	53.3%	6
6×	90	29	61	67.8%	7
5×	90	19	71	78.9%	8
4×	90	5	85	94.4%	9
3×	90	2	88	97.8%	12.5
2×	90	0	90	100.0%	—

What the closing rule assumes

Every one of these would move some cells. They are not all in the same direction, so the grid is not simply optimistic or simply pessimistic — it is a rule applied consistently, with these six things left out. The same model against a real crash, February 2026 →

Assumption	What is left out	Which way it bends the answer
No funding	A leveraged position pays or receives funding every settlement. Over a 30-day hold that is 720 payments on this venue, and it moves margin, not price.	Usually too kind: Hyperliquid's base rate has longs paying shorts, and a long paying funding runs out of margin sooner than the grid says.
No fees	Opening and closing both cost. Small beside funding over 30 days, and the same sign as the funding a long usually pays.	Too kind, slightly.
Isolated margin	Each position is assumed to stand on its own margin, with no account balance behind it and no top-ups.	Too harsh for anyone trading cross-margin or adding margin — those positions survive longer.
Traded price, not mark price	Exchanges liquidate against a mark or index price, which is smoothed. This tests the candle's own low and high.	Too harsh: a thin wick can cross this threshold without moving the mark that far.
Hyperliquid's tier 1	5.000%, from the first tier of Hyperliquid's margin table for ADA — this page names the venue because a maintenance margin is venue-specific and "the venue's table" left a reader to guess which. Real tiers step up with position size; only the first is used.	Too kind at large size, exact at small size.
Daily candles	The check is one low and one high per day, so the day a position closes is known and the hour is not.	Neither — it limits resolution, not direction.

The 90 entry days (30 further days are read past the last one)

Entry day (UTC)	Close	Low	High
2026-06-02	$0.21275	$0.20956	$0.23122
2026-06-03	$0.20017	$0.19988	$0.21828
2026-06-04	$0.17967	$0.17865	$0.20163
2026-06-05	$0.15651	$0.15436	$0.17966
2026-06-06	$0.15711	$0.14856	$0.16224
2026-06-07	$0.16514	$0.15668	$0.16864
2026-06-08	$0.17017	$0.15976	$0.17431
2026-06-09	$0.16515	$0.16066	$0.17092
2026-06-10	$0.16051	$0.15818	$0.16669
2026-06-11	$0.17055	$0.16048	$0.17192
2026-06-12	$0.16956	$0.16757	$0.17429
2026-06-13	$0.17182	$0.16903	$0.17568
2026-06-14	$0.18288	$0.16534	$0.18367
2026-06-15	$0.17832	$0.17678	$0.18977
2026-06-16	$0.17221	$0.17190	$0.18120
2026-06-17	$0.16670	$0.16360	$0.17480
2026-06-18	$0.16359	$0.15968	$0.16865
2026-06-19	$0.16199	$0.15856	$0.16481
2026-06-20	$0.16314	$0.15984	$0.16483
2026-06-21	$0.15647	$0.15623	$0.16347
2026-06-22	$0.15840	$0.15640	$0.16313
2026-06-23	$0.15132	$0.14920	$0.15992
2026-06-24	$0.14750	$0.13952	$0.15422
2026-06-25	$0.14361	$0.13819	$0.15065
2026-06-26	$0.14836	$0.13836	$0.14985
2026-06-27	$0.14513	$0.14356	$0.14963
2026-06-28	$0.14371	$0.14111	$0.14648
2026-06-29	$0.14574	$0.14174	$0.14866
2026-06-30	$0.14429	$0.14198	$0.14636
2026-07-01	$0.15391	$0.14197	$0.15802
2026-07-02	$0.16150	$0.15256	$0.16291
2026-07-03	$0.17989	$0.16063	$0.18313
2026-07-04	$0.19222	$0.17509	$0.20000
2026-07-05	$0.18958	$0.18524	$0.19502
2026-07-06	$0.18393	$0.17799	$0.19064
2026-07-07	$0.17441	$0.17331	$0.18500
2026-07-08	$0.16695	$0.16468	$0.17613
2026-07-09	$0.16645	$0.16493	$0.16992
2026-07-10	$0.16658	$0.16503	$0.16972
2026-07-11	$0.16565	$0.16557	$0.17453
2026-07-12	$0.16192	$0.16097	$0.16637
2026-07-13	$0.15737	$0.15543	$0.16450
2026-07-14	$0.16543	$0.15613	$0.16816
2026-07-15	$0.16502	$0.16201	$0.16930
2026-07-16	$0.16069	$0.15982	$0.16632
2026-07-17	$0.16660	$0.15767	$0.16746
2026-07-18	$0.16668	$0.16347	$0.16916
2026-07-19	$0.16615	$0.16373	$0.16863
2026-07-20	$0.16984	$0.16060	$0.17182
2026-07-21	$0.17358	$0.16946	$0.17752
2026-07-22	$0.17436	$0.17041	$0.18076
2026-07-23	$0.16841	$0.16796	$0.17663
2026-07-24	$0.16388	$0.16260	$0.16847
2026-07-25	$0.16469	$0.16131	$0.16699
2026-07-26	$0.16597	$0.16406	$0.16651
2026-07-27	$0.15551	$0.15365	$0.16718
2026-07-28	$0.16188	$0.15330	$0.16338
2026-07-29	$0.16201	$0.16045	$0.16911
2026-07-30	$0.16960	$0.16146	$0.17600
2026-07-31	$0.16813	$0.16646	$0.17252
2026-08-01	$0.17436	$0.16811	$0.17658
2026-08-02	$0.18946	$0.17277	$0.19195
2026-08-03	$0.19353	$0.18153	$0.19618
2026-08-04	$0.19277	$0.19100	$0.19933
2026-08-05	$0.19104	$0.18862	$0.19867
2026-08-06	$0.20111	$0.18586	$0.21146
2026-08-07	$0.20073	$0.19651	$0.20385
2026-08-08	$0.19921	$0.19771	$0.20224
2026-08-09	$0.19444	$0.19298	$0.19964
2026-08-10	$0.19068	$0.19065	$0.19927
2026-08-11	$0.18695	$0.18358	$0.19142
2026-08-12	$0.18264	$0.18046	$0.18828
2026-08-13	$0.18230	$0.18026	$0.18645
2026-08-14	$0.18014	$0.17801	$0.18356
2026-08-15	$0.17637	$0.17571	$0.18174
2026-08-16	$0.17476	$0.17450	$0.17920
2026-08-17	$0.17413	$0.17241	$0.17782
2026-08-18	$0.17449	$0.17121	$0.17688
2026-08-19	$0.18715	$0.17321	$0.19224
2026-08-20	$0.19899	$0.18179	$0.20349
2026-08-21	$0.22938	$0.19859	$0.23360
2026-08-22	$0.22628	$0.20708	$0.25902
2026-08-23	$0.22725	$0.21344	$0.23080
2026-08-24	$0.22157	$0.21675	$0.22769
2026-08-25	$0.20892	$0.20579	$0.22898
2026-08-26	$0.21217	$0.20235	$0.21304
2026-08-27	$0.21359	$0.20730	$0.21735
2026-08-28	$0.20299	$0.19927	$0.21793
2026-08-29	$0.20163	$0.19893	$0.20319
2026-08-30	$0.19266	$0.18957	$0.20609

Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →