Liquidations › Survival

AVAX leverage survival

Across 90 AVAX daily closes, 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, a 30-day long at 10× would have been closed out on 62 of them, 68.89% — while 2× survived every one. The prices are real; the closing rule is a model. Both come from Hyperliquid — its candles, and its margin table. Every cell asks one checkable question about an observed price path — a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days: did the maintenance-margin threshold get crossed, and on which day? No price here is simulated. But deciding that a position would have closed takes assumptions, and they are listed below rather than left implicit. That is a smaller set than the density map needs, which is the honest version of the claim this paragraph used to make.

Not investment advice — modelled figures from stated assumptions. Terms and disclaimer

AVAX daily candles from Hyperliquid — real traded days only; the venue's pre-launch backfill carries zero volume and is excluded. Entry days 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, each with a complete 30-day window, so no column is flattered by having had less time to fail.

The same map, counted

Leverage	Entry days tested	Closed within 30d	Survived	Survival rate	Median days to closure
10× · max	90	62	28	31.1%	4
9×	90	53	37	41.1%	5
7×	90	28	62	68.9%	8
6×	90	19	71	78.9%	8
5×	90	9	81	90.0%	3
4×	90	3	87	96.7%	4
3×	90	1	89	98.9%	17
2×	90	0	90	100.0%	—

What the closing rule assumes

Every one of these would move some cells. They are not all in the same direction, so the grid is not simply optimistic or simply pessimistic — it is a rule applied consistently, with these six things left out. The same model against a real crash, February 2026 →

Assumption	What is left out	Which way it bends the answer
No funding	A leveraged position pays or receives funding every settlement. Over a 30-day hold that is 720 payments on this venue, and it moves margin, not price.	Usually too kind: Hyperliquid's base rate has longs paying shorts, and a long paying funding runs out of margin sooner than the grid says.
No fees	Opening and closing both cost. Small beside funding over 30 days, and the same sign as the funding a long usually pays.	Too kind, slightly.
Isolated margin	Each position is assumed to stand on its own margin, with no account balance behind it and no top-ups.	Too harsh for anyone trading cross-margin or adding margin — those positions survive longer.
Traded price, not mark price	Exchanges liquidate against a mark or index price, which is smoothed. This tests the candle's own low and high.	Too harsh: a thin wick can cross this threshold without moving the mark that far.
Hyperliquid's tier 1	5.000%, from the first tier of Hyperliquid's margin table for AVAX — this page names the venue because a maintenance margin is venue-specific and "the venue's table" left a reader to guess which. Real tiers step up with position size; only the first is used.	Too kind at large size, exact at small size.
Daily candles	The check is one low and one high per day, so the day a position closes is known and the hour is not.	Neither — it limits resolution, not direction.

The 90 entry days (30 further days are read past the last one)

Entry day (UTC)	Close	Low	High
2026-06-02	$8.177	$8.034	$8.943
2026-06-03	$8.050	$7.915	$8.373
2026-06-04	$7.702	$7.519	$8.117
2026-06-05	$6.723	$6.556	$7.719
2026-06-06	$6.659	$6.180	$6.928
2026-06-07	$6.811	$6.507	$6.950
2026-06-08	$6.760	$6.525	$6.878
2026-06-09	$6.636	$6.440	$6.787
2026-06-10	$6.376	$6.301	$6.673
2026-06-11	$6.640	$6.377	$6.700
2026-06-12	$6.564	$6.513	$6.694
2026-06-13	$6.712	$6.555	$6.770
2026-06-14	$6.786	$6.372	$6.787
2026-06-15	$6.833	$6.697	$7.070
2026-06-16	$6.875	$6.709	$7.044
2026-06-17	$6.759	$6.644	$7.016
2026-06-18	$6.311	$6.210	$6.798
2026-06-19	$5.892	$5.683	$6.319
2026-06-20	$6.234	$5.827	$6.257
2026-06-21	$6.109	$6.094	$6.365
2026-06-22	$6.233	$6.109	$6.465
2026-06-23	$6.482	$6.011	$6.523
2026-06-24	$6.439	$5.992	$6.541
2026-06-25	$6.231	$5.945	$6.634
2026-06-26	$6.629	$5.959	$6.629
2026-06-27	$6.428	$6.334	$6.668
2026-06-28	$6.445	$6.268	$6.482
2026-06-29	$6.673	$6.362	$6.814
2026-06-30	$6.536	$6.382	$6.676
2026-07-01	$6.661	$6.424	$6.809
2026-07-02	$6.799	$6.610	$6.875
2026-07-03	$6.949	$6.784	$7.030
2026-07-04	$6.964	$6.817	$7.113
2026-07-05	$6.920	$6.751	$7.000
2026-07-06	$6.925	$6.709	$7.087
2026-07-07	$6.682	$6.647	$6.946
2026-07-08	$6.470	$6.315	$6.694
2026-07-09	$6.679	$6.427	$6.808
2026-07-10	$6.738	$6.652	$6.839
2026-07-11	$6.554	$6.541	$6.787
2026-07-12	$6.406	$6.280	$6.546
2026-07-13	$6.448	$6.341	$6.679
2026-07-14	$6.700	$6.417	$6.712
2026-07-15	$6.699	$6.604	$6.772
2026-07-16	$6.512	$6.481	$6.736
2026-07-17	$6.586	$6.371	$6.645
2026-07-18	$6.571	$6.511	$6.656
2026-07-19	$6.460	$6.388	$6.635
2026-07-20	$6.580	$6.442	$6.649
2026-07-21	$6.567	$6.525	$6.685
2026-07-22	$6.622	$6.463	$6.660
2026-07-23	$6.262	$6.199	$6.650
2026-07-24	$6.299	$6.137	$6.313
2026-07-25	$6.775	$6.227	$6.838
2026-07-26	$6.742	$6.648	$6.829
2026-07-27	$6.407	$6.375	$6.746
2026-07-28	$6.574	$6.358	$6.625
2026-07-29	$6.428	$6.306	$6.634
2026-07-30	$6.432	$6.388	$6.523
2026-07-31	$6.383	$6.332	$6.542
2026-08-01	$6.185	$6.038	$6.448
2026-08-02	$6.548	$6.181	$6.681
2026-08-03	$6.572	$6.370	$6.594
2026-08-04	$6.685	$6.561	$6.980
2026-08-05	$6.657	$6.536	$6.719
2026-08-06	$6.438	$6.356	$6.703
2026-08-07	$6.429	$6.357	$6.514
2026-08-08	$6.479	$6.415	$6.588
2026-08-09	$6.422	$6.392	$6.586
2026-08-10	$6.433	$6.373	$6.579
2026-08-11	$6.320	$6.112	$6.555
2026-08-12	$6.315	$6.209	$6.540
2026-08-13	$6.453	$6.313	$6.548
2026-08-14	$6.473	$6.345	$6.490
2026-08-15	$6.329	$6.292	$6.877
2026-08-16	$6.325	$6.222	$6.433
2026-08-17	$6.350	$6.290	$6.394
2026-08-18	$6.333	$6.232	$6.446
2026-08-19	$6.784	$6.287	$6.882
2026-08-20	$7.293	$6.702	$7.323
2026-08-21	$7.844	$7.224	$7.905
2026-08-22	$7.502	$6.971	$8.358
2026-08-23	$7.614	$7.279	$7.682
2026-08-24	$7.545	$7.398	$7.656
2026-08-25	$7.322	$7.226	$7.740
2026-08-26	$7.440	$7.154	$7.461
2026-08-27	$7.525	$7.292	$7.580
2026-08-28	$7.305	$7.200	$7.595
2026-08-29	$7.332	$7.224	$7.370
2026-08-30	$7.111	$7.010	$7.467

Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →