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BTC leverage survival

Across 90 BTC daily closes, 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, a 30-day long at 40× would have been closed out on 77 of them, 85.56% — while 5× survived every one. The prices are real; the closing rule is a model. Both come from Hyperliquid — its candles, and its margin table. Every cell asks one checkable question about an observed price path — a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days: did the maintenance-margin threshold get crossed, and on which day? No price here is simulated. But deciding that a position would have closed takes assumptions, and they are listed below rather than left implicit. That is a smaller set than the density map needs, which is the honest version of the claim this paragraph used to make.

Not investment advice — modelled figures from stated assumptions. Terms and disclaimer

closed afternext day23–45–78–1415–30daysnever closed in 30 days60,00080,000BTC close on the entry day40×40× 2 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 3 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 4 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 5 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 6 Jun 2026: closed day 1840× 7 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 8 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 9 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 10 Jun 2026: closed day 1440× 11 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 12 Jun 2026: closed day 640× 13 Jun 2026: closed day 540× 14 Jun 2026: closed day 340× 15 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 16 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 17 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 18 Jun 2026: closed day 540× 19 Jun 2026: closed day 440× 20 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 21 Jun 2026: closed day 240× 22 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 23 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 24 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 25 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 26 Jun 2026: closed day 240× 27 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 28 Jun 2026: closed day 240× 29 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 30 Jun 2026: closed day 140× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d40× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d40× 3 Jul 2026: closed day 340× 4 Jul 2026: closed day 240× 5 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 6 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 7 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d40× 9 Jul 2026: closed day 440× 10 Jul 2026: closed day 340× 11 Jul 2026: closed day 240× 12 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d40× 14 Jul 2026: closed day 240× 15 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 16 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 17 Jul 2026: closed day 1140× 18 Jul 2026: closed day 240× 19 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 20 Jul 2026: closed day 440× 21 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 22 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 23 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 24 Jul 2026: closed day 440× 25 Jul 2026: closed day 340× 26 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 27 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 28 Jul 2026: closed day 340× 29 Jul 2026: closed day 240× 30 Jul 2026: closed day 140× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d40× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d40× 2 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 3 Aug 2026: closed day 1140× 4 Aug 2026: closed day 740× 5 Aug 2026: closed day 540× 6 Aug 2026: closed day 540× 7 Aug 2026: closed day 340× 8 Aug 2026: closed day 240× 9 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 10 Aug 2026: closed day 340× 11 Aug 2026: closed day 340× 12 Aug 2026: closed day 240× 13 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d40× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d40× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d40× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d40× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d40× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d40× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d40× 21 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 22 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 23 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 24 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 25 Aug 2026: closed day 340× 26 Aug 2026: closed day 240× 27 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 28 Aug 2026: closed day 440× 29 Aug 2026: closed day 140× 30 Aug 2026: closed day 233×33× 2 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 3 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 4 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 5 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 6 Jun 2026: closed day 1833× 7 Jun 2026: closed day 233× 8 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 9 Jun 2026: closed day 1533× 10 Jun 2026: closed day 1433× 11 Jun 2026: closed day 733× 12 Jun 2026: closed day 633× 13 Jun 2026: closed day 533× 14 Jun 2026: closed day 333× 15 Jun 2026: closed day 233× 16 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 17 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 18 Jun 2026: closed day 633× 19 Jun 2026: closed day 433× 20 Jun 2026: closed day 333× 21 Jun 2026: closed day 233× 22 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 23 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 24 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 25 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 26 Jun 2026: closed day 233× 27 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 28 Jun 2026: closed day 233× 29 Jun 2026: closed day 133× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d33× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d33× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d33× 3 Jul 2026: closed day 333× 4 Jul 2026: closed day 233× 5 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 6 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 7 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d33× 9 Jul 2026: closed day 433× 10 Jul 2026: closed day 333× 11 Jul 2026: closed day 233× 12 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d33× 14 Jul 2026: closed day 233× 15 Jul 2026: closed day 233× 16 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 17 Jul 2026: closed day 1133× 18 Jul 2026: closed day 933× 19 Jul 2026: closed day 933× 20 Jul 2026: closed day 433× 21 Jul 2026: closed day 233× 22 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 23 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 24 Jul 2026: closed day 433× 25 Jul 2026: closed day 333× 26 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 27 Jul 2026: closed day 433× 28 Jul 2026: closed day 333× 29 Jul 2026: closed day 233× 30 Jul 2026: closed day 133× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d33× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 2 Aug 2026: closed day 133× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 4 Aug 2026: closed day 933× 5 Aug 2026: closed day 633× 6 Aug 2026: closed day 733× 7 Aug 2026: closed day 433× 8 Aug 2026: closed day 333× 9 Aug 2026: closed day 233× 10 Aug 2026: closed day 433× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d33× 21 Aug 2026: closed day 133× 22 Aug 2026: closed day 133× 23 Aug 2026: closed day 933× 24 Aug 2026: closed day 433× 25 Aug 2026: closed day 333× 26 Aug 2026: closed day 233× 27 Aug 2026: closed day 133× 28 Aug 2026: closed day 433× 29 Aug 2026: closed day 333× 30 Aug 2026: closed day 327×27× 2 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 3 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 4 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 5 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 6 Jun 2026: closed day 1827× 7 Jun 2026: closed day 227× 8 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 9 Jun 2026: closed day 1527× 10 Jun 2026: closed day 1427× 11 Jun 2026: closed day 1227× 12 Jun 2026: closed day 1127× 13 Jun 2026: closed day 527× 14 Jun 2026: closed day 327× 15 Jun 2026: closed day 227× 16 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 17 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 18 Jun 2026: closed day 627× 19 Jun 2026: closed day 427× 20 Jun 2026: closed day 327× 21 Jun 2026: closed day 327× 22 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 23 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 24 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 25 Jun 2026: closed day 527× 26 Jun 2026: closed day 427× 27 Jun 2026: closed day 327× 28 Jun 2026: closed day 327× 29 Jun 2026: closed day 127× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d27× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 4 Jul 2026: closed day 227× 5 Jul 2026: closed day 127× 6 Jul 2026: closed day 227× 7 Jul 2026: closed day 127× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 10 Jul 2026: closed day 327× 11 Jul 2026: closed day 227× 12 Jul 2026: closed day 127× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 14 Jul 2026: closed day 327× 15 Jul 2026: closed day 227× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 17 Jul 2026: closed day 1527× 18 Jul 2026: closed day 1027× 19 Jul 2026: closed day 927× 20 Jul 2026: closed day 727× 21 Jul 2026: closed day 227× 22 Jul 2026: closed day 227× 23 Jul 2026: closed day 527× 24 Jul 2026: closed day 727× 25 Jul 2026: closed day 327× 26 Jul 2026: closed day 127× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 28 Jul 2026: closed day 427× 29 Jul 2026: closed day 327× 30 Jul 2026: closed day 127× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d27× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 5 Aug 2026: closed day 827× 6 Aug 2026: closed day 827× 7 Aug 2026: closed day 427× 8 Aug 2026: closed day 327× 9 Aug 2026: closed day 227× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d27× 21 Aug 2026: closed day 227× 22 Aug 2026: closed day 2427× 23 Aug 2026: closed day 2327× 24 Aug 2026: closed day 427× 25 Aug 2026: closed day 727× 26 Aug 2026: closed day 227× 27 Aug 2026: closed day 127× 28 Aug 2026: closed day 1827× 29 Aug 2026: closed day 427× 30 Aug 2026: closed day 1622×22× 2 Jun 2026: closed day 122× 3 Jun 2026: closed day 122× 4 Jun 2026: closed day 122× 5 Jun 2026: closed day 2022× 6 Jun 2026: closed day 1922× 7 Jun 2026: closed day 222× 8 Jun 2026: closed day 122× 9 Jun 2026: closed day 1522× 10 Jun 2026: closed day 1422× 11 Jun 2026: closed day 1322× 12 Jun 2026: closed day 1222× 13 Jun 2026: closed day 522× 14 Jun 2026: closed day 422× 15 Jun 2026: closed day 222× 16 Jun 2026: closed day 222× 17 Jun 2026: closed day 122× 18 Jun 2026: closed day 622× 19 Jun 2026: closed day 522× 20 Jun 2026: closed day 322× 21 Jun 2026: closed day 322× 22 Jun 2026: closed day 222× 23 Jun 2026: closed day 122× 24 Jun 2026: closed day 122× 25 Jun 2026: survived 30d22× 26 Jun 2026: closed day 522× 27 Jun 2026: closed day 422× 28 Jun 2026: survived 30d22× 29 Jun 2026: closed day 122× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d22× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 4 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 5 Jul 2026: closed day 122× 6 Jul 2026: closed day 222× 7 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 10 Jul 2026: closed day 322× 11 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 12 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 14 Jul 2026: closed day 322× 15 Jul 2026: closed day 222× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 17 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 18 Jul 2026: closed day 1322× 19 Jul 2026: closed day 1222× 20 Jul 2026: closed day 822× 21 Jul 2026: closed day 322× 22 Jul 2026: closed day 222× 23 Jul 2026: closed day 522× 24 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 25 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 26 Jul 2026: closed day 222× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 28 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 29 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 30 Jul 2026: closed day 122× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d22× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 5 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 6 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 7 Aug 2026: closed day 722× 8 Aug 2026: closed day 622× 9 Aug 2026: closed day 522× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 21 Aug 2026: closed day 222× 22 Aug 2026: survived 30d22× 23 Aug 2026: closed day 2322× 24 Aug 2026: closed day 922× 25 Aug 2026: closed day 2122× 26 Aug 2026: closed day 722× 27 Aug 2026: closed day 122× 28 Aug 2026: closed day 1822× 29 Aug 2026: closed day 1722× 30 Aug 2026: closed day 1617×17× 2 Jun 2026: closed day 217× 3 Jun 2026: closed day 217× 4 Jun 2026: closed day 117× 5 Jun 2026: closed day 2017× 6 Jun 2026: closed day 2517× 7 Jun 2026: closed day 1717× 8 Jun 2026: closed day 1617× 9 Jun 2026: closed day 1617× 10 Jun 2026: closed day 1517× 11 Jun 2026: closed day 1317× 12 Jun 2026: closed day 1217× 13 Jun 2026: closed day 1117× 14 Jun 2026: closed day 417× 15 Jun 2026: closed day 317× 16 Jun 2026: closed day 217× 17 Jun 2026: closed day 717× 18 Jun 2026: closed day 617× 19 Jun 2026: closed day 517× 20 Jun 2026: closed day 417× 21 Jun 2026: closed day 317× 22 Jun 2026: closed day 217× 23 Jun 2026: closed day 117× 24 Jun 2026: closed day 117× 25 Jun 2026: survived 30d17× 26 Jun 2026: survived 30d17× 27 Jun 2026: survived 30d17× 28 Jun 2026: survived 30d17× 29 Jun 2026: survived 30d17× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d17× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 4 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 5 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 6 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 7 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 10 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 11 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 12 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 14 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 15 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 17 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 18 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 19 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 20 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 21 Jul 2026: closed day 717× 22 Jul 2026: closed day 617× 23 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 24 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 25 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 26 Jul 2026: closed day 617× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 28 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 29 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 30 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d17× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 5 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 6 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 7 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 8 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 9 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 21 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 22 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 23 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 24 Aug 2026: closed day 2217× 25 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 26 Aug 2026: closed day 2017× 27 Aug 2026: closed day 517× 28 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 29 Aug 2026: survived 30d17× 30 Aug 2026: survived 30d13×13× 2 Jun 2026: closed day 213× 3 Jun 2026: closed day 213× 4 Jun 2026: closed day 113× 5 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 6 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 7 Jun 2026: closed day 1713× 8 Jun 2026: closed day 1713× 9 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 10 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 11 Jun 2026: closed day 1313× 12 Jun 2026: closed day 1213× 13 Jun 2026: closed day 1113× 14 Jun 2026: closed day 1013× 15 Jun 2026: closed day 813× 16 Jun 2026: closed day 813× 17 Jun 2026: closed day 713× 18 Jun 2026: closed day 713× 19 Jun 2026: closed day 513× 20 Jun 2026: closed day 413× 21 Jun 2026: closed day 313× 22 Jun 2026: closed day 213× 23 Jun 2026: closed day 213× 24 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 25 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 26 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 27 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 28 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 29 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d13× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 4 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 5 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 6 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 7 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 10 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 11 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 12 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 14 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 15 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 17 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 18 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 19 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 20 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 21 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 22 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 23 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 24 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 25 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 26 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 28 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 29 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 30 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d13× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 5 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 6 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 7 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 8 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 9 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 21 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 22 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 23 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 24 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 25 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 26 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 27 Aug 2026: closed day 1913× 28 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 29 Aug 2026: survived 30d13× 30 Aug 2026: survived 30d10×10× 2 Jun 2026: closed day 310× 3 Jun 2026: closed day 2210× 4 Jun 2026: closed day 2110× 5 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 6 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 7 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 8 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 9 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 10 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 11 Jun 2026: closed day 2010× 12 Jun 2026: closed day 1910× 13 Jun 2026: closed day 1210× 14 Jun 2026: closed day 1010× 15 Jun 2026: closed day 910× 16 Jun 2026: closed day 810× 17 Jun 2026: closed day 810× 18 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 19 Jun 2026: closed day 1210× 20 Jun 2026: closed day 510× 21 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 22 Jun 2026: closed day 310× 23 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 24 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 25 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 26 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 27 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 28 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 29 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d10× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 4 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 5 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 6 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 7 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 10 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 11 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 12 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 14 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 15 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 17 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 18 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 19 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 20 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 21 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 22 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 23 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 24 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 25 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 26 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 28 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 29 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 30 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d10× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 5 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 6 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 7 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 8 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 9 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 21 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 22 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 23 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 24 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 25 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 26 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 27 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 28 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 29 Aug 2026: survived 30d10× 30 Aug 2026: survived 30d7×7× 2 Jun 2026: closed day 297× 3 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 4 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 5 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 6 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 7 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 8 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 9 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 10 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 11 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 12 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 13 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 14 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 15 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 16 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 17 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 18 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 19 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 20 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 21 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 22 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 23 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 24 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 25 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 26 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 27 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 28 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 29 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d7× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 4 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 5 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 6 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 7 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 10 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 11 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 12 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 14 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 15 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 17 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 18 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 19 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 20 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 21 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 22 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 23 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 24 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 25 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 26 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 28 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 29 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 30 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d7× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 5 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 6 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 7 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 8 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 9 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 21 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 22 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 23 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 24 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 25 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 26 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 27 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 28 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 29 Aug 2026: survived 30d7× 30 Aug 2026: survived 30d5×5× 2 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 3 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 4 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 5 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 6 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 7 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 8 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 9 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 10 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 11 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 12 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 13 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 14 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 15 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 16 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 17 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 18 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 19 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 20 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 21 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 22 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 23 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 24 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 25 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 26 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 27 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 28 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 29 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d5× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 4 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 5 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 6 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 7 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 10 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 11 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 12 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 14 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 15 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 17 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 18 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 19 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 20 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 21 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 22 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 23 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 24 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 25 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 26 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 28 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 29 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 30 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d5× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 5 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 6 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 7 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 8 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 9 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 21 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 22 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 23 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 24 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 25 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 26 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 27 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 28 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 29 Aug 2026: survived 30d5× 30 Aug 2026: survived 30d3×3× 2 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 3 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 4 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 5 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 6 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 7 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 8 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 9 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 10 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 11 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 12 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 13 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 14 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 15 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 16 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 17 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 18 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 19 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 20 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 21 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 22 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 23 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 24 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 25 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 26 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 27 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 28 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 29 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d3× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 4 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 5 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 6 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 7 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 10 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 11 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 12 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 14 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 15 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 17 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 18 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 19 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 20 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 21 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 22 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 23 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 24 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 25 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 26 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 28 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 29 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 30 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d3× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 5 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 6 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 7 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 8 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 9 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 21 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 22 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 23 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 24 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 25 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 26 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 27 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 28 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 29 Aug 2026: survived 30d3× 30 Aug 2026: survived 30d2×2× 2 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 3 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 4 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 5 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 6 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 7 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 8 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 9 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 10 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 11 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 12 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 13 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 14 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 15 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 16 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 17 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 18 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 19 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 20 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 21 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 22 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 23 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 24 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 25 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 26 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 27 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 28 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 29 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 30 Jun 2026: survived 30d2× 1 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 2 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 3 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 4 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 5 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 6 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 7 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 8 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 9 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 10 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 11 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 12 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 13 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 14 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 15 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 16 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 17 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 18 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 19 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 20 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 21 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 22 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 23 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 24 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 25 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 26 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 27 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 28 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 29 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 30 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 31 Jul 2026: survived 30d2× 1 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 2 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 3 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 4 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 5 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 6 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 7 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 8 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 9 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 10 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 11 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 12 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 13 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 14 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 15 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 16 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 17 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 18 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 19 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 20 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 21 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 22 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 23 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 24 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 25 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 26 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 27 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 28 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 29 Aug 2026: survived 30d2× 30 Aug 2026: survived 30d14 Jun28 Jun12 Jul26 Jul9 Aug23 Aug
BTC daily candles from Hyperliquid — real traded days only; the venue's pre-launch backfill carries zero volume and is excluded. Entry days 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, each with a complete 30-day window, so no column is flattered by having had less time to fail.

The same map, counted

LeverageEntry days testedClosed within 30dSurvivedSurvival rateMedian days to closure
40× · max 90 77 13 14.4% 1
33× 90 72 18 20.0% 2
27× 90 65 25 27.8% 3
22× 90 51 39 43.3% 4
17× 90 29 61 67.8% 6
13× 90 19 71 78.9% 7
10× 90 13 77 85.6% 10
7× 90 1 89 98.9% 29
5× 90 0 90 100.0% —
3× 90 0 90 100.0% —
2× 90 0 90 100.0% —

What the closing rule assumes

Every one of these would move some cells. They are not all in the same direction, so the grid is not simply optimistic or simply pessimistic — it is a rule applied consistently, with these six things left out. The same model against a real crash, February 2026 →

AssumptionWhat is left outWhich way it bends the answer
No funding A leveraged position pays or receives funding every settlement. Over a 30-day hold that is 720 payments on this venue, and it moves margin, not price. Usually too kind: Hyperliquid's base rate has longs paying shorts, and a long paying funding runs out of margin sooner than the grid says.
No fees Opening and closing both cost. Small beside funding over 30 days, and the same sign as the funding a long usually pays. Too kind, slightly.
Isolated margin Each position is assumed to stand on its own margin, with no account balance behind it and no top-ups. Too harsh for anyone trading cross-margin or adding margin — those positions survive longer.
Traded price, not mark price Exchanges liquidate against a mark or index price, which is smoothed. This tests the candle's own low and high. Too harsh: a thin wick can cross this threshold without moving the mark that far.
Hyperliquid's tier 1 1.250%, from the first tier of Hyperliquid's margin table for BTC — this page names the venue because a maintenance margin is venue-specific and "the venue's table" left a reader to guess which. Real tiers step up with position size; only the first is used. Too kind at large size, exact at small size.
Daily candles The check is one low and one high per day, so the day a position closes is known and the hour is not. Neither — it limits resolution, not direction.
The 90 entry days (30 further days are read past the last one)
Entry day (UTC)CloseLowHigh
2026-06-02 $66,732.00 $66,169.00 $71,412.00
2026-06-03 $64,118.00 $64,061.00 $67,479.00
2026-06-04 $63,855.00 $61,350.00 $64,752.00
2026-06-05 $61,033.00 $59,100.00 $63,949.00
2026-06-06 $60,861.00 $59,459.00 $61,508.00
2026-06-07 $63,309.00 $60,714.00 $64,228.00
2026-06-08 $63,058.00 $62,375.00 $64,196.00
2026-06-09 $61,695.00 $60,765.00 $63,514.00
2026-06-10 $61,481.00 $60,733.00 $62,827.00
2026-06-11 $63,621.00 $61,484.00 $63,919.00
2026-06-12 $63,561.00 $62,801.00 $64,383.00
2026-06-13 $64,427.00 $63,420.00 $64,750.00
2026-06-14 $65,720.00 $63,648.00 $65,780.00
2026-06-15 $66,294.00 $65,325.00 $67,283.00
2026-06-16 $65,639.00 $65,320.00 $66,964.00
2026-06-17 $64,470.00 $63,878.00 $66,429.00
2026-06-18 $62,935.00 $62,235.00 $64,771.00
2026-06-19 $63,512.00 $62,292.00 $63,630.00
2026-06-20 $64,276.00 $63,170.00 $64,361.00
2026-06-21 $63,270.00 $63,242.00 $64,555.00
2026-06-22 $64,012.00 $63,270.00 $65,587.00
2026-06-23 $62,706.00 $61,901.00 $64,254.00
2026-06-24 $61,047.00 $59,060.00 $63,196.00
2026-06-25 $59,759.00 $58,062.00 $61,927.00
2026-06-26 $60,074.00 $58,308.00 $60,726.00
2026-06-27 $59,996.00 $59,825.00 $60,935.00
2026-06-28 $59,549.00 $58,875.00 $60,500.00
2026-06-29 $60,227.00 $58,871.00 $60,767.00
2026-06-30 $58,603.00 $58,160.00 $60,248.00
2026-07-01 $60,010.00 $57,768.00 $61,357.00
2026-07-02 $61,587.00 $59,561.00 $62,224.00
2026-07-03 $62,576.00 $61,264.00 $62,949.00
2026-07-04 $63,127.00 $62,319.00 $63,460.00
2026-07-05 $63,635.00 $62,434.00 $63,997.00
2026-07-06 $64,054.00 $61,342.00 $64,698.00
2026-07-07 $63,355.00 $62,667.00 $64,331.00
2026-07-08 $62,283.00 $61,550.00 $63,750.00
2026-07-09 $63,225.00 $61,695.00 $63,500.00
2026-07-10 $64,155.00 $62,922.00 $64,690.00
2026-07-11 $63,823.00 $63,818.00 $64,494.00
2026-07-12 $63,780.00 $63,642.00 $64,297.00
2026-07-13 $62,331.00 $61,821.00 $64,420.00
2026-07-14 $65,000.00 $62,264.00 $65,079.00
2026-07-15 $64,738.00 $64,483.00 $65,577.00
2026-07-16 $63,815.00 $63,723.00 $64,999.00
2026-07-17 $63,928.00 $62,550.00 $64,398.00
2026-07-18 $64,827.00 $63,873.00 $64,873.00
2026-07-19 $64,718.00 $64,275.00 $64,957.00
2026-07-20 $65,226.00 $63,730.00 $65,778.00
2026-07-21 $66,527.00 $65,124.00 $66,918.00
2026-07-22 $66,086.00 $65,534.00 $66,714.00
2026-07-23 $65,069.00 $64,637.00 $66,295.00
2026-07-24 $64,123.00 $63,730.00 $65,795.00
2026-07-25 $64,361.00 $63,736.00 $64,434.00
2026-07-26 $65,366.00 $64,262.00 $65,561.00
2026-07-27 $63,736.00 $63,576.00 $65,715.00
2026-07-28 $63,906.00 $62,703.00 $64,100.00
2026-07-29 $63,962.00 $63,245.00 $64,696.00
2026-07-30 $64,754.00 $63,588.00 $65,153.00
2026-07-31 $62,856.00 $62,440.00 $65,385.00
2026-08-01 $62,790.00 $62,237.00 $63,115.00
2026-08-02 $63,556.00 $62,786.00 $63,784.00
2026-08-03 $63,492.00 $62,270.00 $64,050.00
2026-08-04 $64,068.00 $63,287.00 $64,500.00
2026-08-05 $64,625.00 $63,850.00 $64,986.00
2026-08-06 $64,293.00 $64,156.00 $64,967.00
2026-08-07 $64,885.00 $64,137.00 $65,356.00
2026-08-08 $64,933.00 $64,778.00 $65,168.00
2026-08-09 $64,868.00 $64,700.00 $65,475.00
2026-08-10 $63,952.00 $63,783.00 $65,365.00
2026-08-11 $63,560.00 $63,195.00 $64,460.00
2026-08-12 $63,468.00 $63,286.00 $64,487.00
2026-08-13 $63,480.00 $62,816.00 $63,978.00
2026-08-14 $63,029.00 $62,523.00 $63,615.00
2026-08-15 $63,056.00 $62,890.00 $63,176.00
2026-08-16 $62,873.00 $62,678.00 $63,368.00
2026-08-17 $64,494.00 $62,730.00 $64,580.00
2026-08-18 $64,696.00 $64,000.00 $65,018.00
2026-08-19 $69,323.00 $64,122.00 $70,224.00
2026-08-20 $72,996.00 $68,898.00 $73,370.00
2026-08-21 $78,383.00 $73,001.00 $79,584.00
2026-08-22 $77,133.00 $76,558.00 $78,885.00
2026-08-23 $77,804.00 $75,608.00 $78,118.00
2026-08-24 $78,996.00 $76,693.00 $80,035.00
2026-08-25 $78,494.00 $77,794.00 $81,299.00
2026-08-26 $79,026.00 $77,618.00 $79,226.00
2026-08-27 $80,221.00 $78,547.00 $80,801.00
2026-08-28 $77,832.00 $76,831.00 $81,483.00
2026-08-29 $78,228.00 $77,341.00 $78,331.00
2026-08-30 $77,659.00 $76,971.00 $79,389.00

Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →