Liquidations › Survival

BTC leverage survival

Across 90 BTC daily closes, 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, a 30-day long at 40× would have been closed out on 77 of them, 85.56% — while 5× survived every one. The prices are real; the closing rule is a model. Both come from Hyperliquid — its candles, and its margin table. Every cell asks one checkable question about an observed price path — a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days: did the maintenance-margin threshold get crossed, and on which day? No price here is simulated. But deciding that a position would have closed takes assumptions, and they are listed below rather than left implicit. That is a smaller set than the density map needs, which is the honest version of the claim this paragraph used to make.

Not investment advice — modelled figures from stated assumptions. Terms and disclaimer

BTC daily candles from Hyperliquid — real traded days only; the venue's pre-launch backfill carries zero volume and is excluded. Entry days 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, each with a complete 30-day window, so no column is flattered by having had less time to fail.

The same map, counted

Leverage	Entry days tested	Closed within 30d	Survived	Survival rate	Median days to closure
40× · max	90	77	13	14.4%	1
33×	90	72	18	20.0%	2
27×	90	65	25	27.8%	3
22×	90	51	39	43.3%	4
17×	90	29	61	67.8%	6
13×	90	19	71	78.9%	7
10×	90	13	77	85.6%	10
7×	90	1	89	98.9%	29
5×	90	0	90	100.0%	—
3×	90	0	90	100.0%	—
2×	90	0	90	100.0%	—

What the closing rule assumes

Every one of these would move some cells. They are not all in the same direction, so the grid is not simply optimistic or simply pessimistic — it is a rule applied consistently, with these six things left out. The same model against a real crash, February 2026 →

Assumption	What is left out	Which way it bends the answer
No funding	A leveraged position pays or receives funding every settlement. Over a 30-day hold that is 720 payments on this venue, and it moves margin, not price.	Usually too kind: Hyperliquid's base rate has longs paying shorts, and a long paying funding runs out of margin sooner than the grid says.
No fees	Opening and closing both cost. Small beside funding over 30 days, and the same sign as the funding a long usually pays.	Too kind, slightly.
Isolated margin	Each position is assumed to stand on its own margin, with no account balance behind it and no top-ups.	Too harsh for anyone trading cross-margin or adding margin — those positions survive longer.
Traded price, not mark price	Exchanges liquidate against a mark or index price, which is smoothed. This tests the candle's own low and high.	Too harsh: a thin wick can cross this threshold without moving the mark that far.
Hyperliquid's tier 1	1.250%, from the first tier of Hyperliquid's margin table for BTC — this page names the venue because a maintenance margin is venue-specific and "the venue's table" left a reader to guess which. Real tiers step up with position size; only the first is used.	Too kind at large size, exact at small size.
Daily candles	The check is one low and one high per day, so the day a position closes is known and the hour is not.	Neither — it limits resolution, not direction.

The 90 entry days (30 further days are read past the last one)

Entry day (UTC)	Close	Low	High
2026-06-02	$66,732.00	$66,169.00	$71,412.00
2026-06-03	$64,118.00	$64,061.00	$67,479.00
2026-06-04	$63,855.00	$61,350.00	$64,752.00
2026-06-05	$61,033.00	$59,100.00	$63,949.00
2026-06-06	$60,861.00	$59,459.00	$61,508.00
2026-06-07	$63,309.00	$60,714.00	$64,228.00
2026-06-08	$63,058.00	$62,375.00	$64,196.00
2026-06-09	$61,695.00	$60,765.00	$63,514.00
2026-06-10	$61,481.00	$60,733.00	$62,827.00
2026-06-11	$63,621.00	$61,484.00	$63,919.00
2026-06-12	$63,561.00	$62,801.00	$64,383.00
2026-06-13	$64,427.00	$63,420.00	$64,750.00
2026-06-14	$65,720.00	$63,648.00	$65,780.00
2026-06-15	$66,294.00	$65,325.00	$67,283.00
2026-06-16	$65,639.00	$65,320.00	$66,964.00
2026-06-17	$64,470.00	$63,878.00	$66,429.00
2026-06-18	$62,935.00	$62,235.00	$64,771.00
2026-06-19	$63,512.00	$62,292.00	$63,630.00
2026-06-20	$64,276.00	$63,170.00	$64,361.00
2026-06-21	$63,270.00	$63,242.00	$64,555.00
2026-06-22	$64,012.00	$63,270.00	$65,587.00
2026-06-23	$62,706.00	$61,901.00	$64,254.00
2026-06-24	$61,047.00	$59,060.00	$63,196.00
2026-06-25	$59,759.00	$58,062.00	$61,927.00
2026-06-26	$60,074.00	$58,308.00	$60,726.00
2026-06-27	$59,996.00	$59,825.00	$60,935.00
2026-06-28	$59,549.00	$58,875.00	$60,500.00
2026-06-29	$60,227.00	$58,871.00	$60,767.00
2026-06-30	$58,603.00	$58,160.00	$60,248.00
2026-07-01	$60,010.00	$57,768.00	$61,357.00
2026-07-02	$61,587.00	$59,561.00	$62,224.00
2026-07-03	$62,576.00	$61,264.00	$62,949.00
2026-07-04	$63,127.00	$62,319.00	$63,460.00
2026-07-05	$63,635.00	$62,434.00	$63,997.00
2026-07-06	$64,054.00	$61,342.00	$64,698.00
2026-07-07	$63,355.00	$62,667.00	$64,331.00
2026-07-08	$62,283.00	$61,550.00	$63,750.00
2026-07-09	$63,225.00	$61,695.00	$63,500.00
2026-07-10	$64,155.00	$62,922.00	$64,690.00
2026-07-11	$63,823.00	$63,818.00	$64,494.00
2026-07-12	$63,780.00	$63,642.00	$64,297.00
2026-07-13	$62,331.00	$61,821.00	$64,420.00
2026-07-14	$65,000.00	$62,264.00	$65,079.00
2026-07-15	$64,738.00	$64,483.00	$65,577.00
2026-07-16	$63,815.00	$63,723.00	$64,999.00
2026-07-17	$63,928.00	$62,550.00	$64,398.00
2026-07-18	$64,827.00	$63,873.00	$64,873.00
2026-07-19	$64,718.00	$64,275.00	$64,957.00
2026-07-20	$65,226.00	$63,730.00	$65,778.00
2026-07-21	$66,527.00	$65,124.00	$66,918.00
2026-07-22	$66,086.00	$65,534.00	$66,714.00
2026-07-23	$65,069.00	$64,637.00	$66,295.00
2026-07-24	$64,123.00	$63,730.00	$65,795.00
2026-07-25	$64,361.00	$63,736.00	$64,434.00
2026-07-26	$65,366.00	$64,262.00	$65,561.00
2026-07-27	$63,736.00	$63,576.00	$65,715.00
2026-07-28	$63,906.00	$62,703.00	$64,100.00
2026-07-29	$63,962.00	$63,245.00	$64,696.00
2026-07-30	$64,754.00	$63,588.00	$65,153.00
2026-07-31	$62,856.00	$62,440.00	$65,385.00
2026-08-01	$62,790.00	$62,237.00	$63,115.00
2026-08-02	$63,556.00	$62,786.00	$63,784.00
2026-08-03	$63,492.00	$62,270.00	$64,050.00
2026-08-04	$64,068.00	$63,287.00	$64,500.00
2026-08-05	$64,625.00	$63,850.00	$64,986.00
2026-08-06	$64,293.00	$64,156.00	$64,967.00
2026-08-07	$64,885.00	$64,137.00	$65,356.00
2026-08-08	$64,933.00	$64,778.00	$65,168.00
2026-08-09	$64,868.00	$64,700.00	$65,475.00
2026-08-10	$63,952.00	$63,783.00	$65,365.00
2026-08-11	$63,560.00	$63,195.00	$64,460.00
2026-08-12	$63,468.00	$63,286.00	$64,487.00
2026-08-13	$63,480.00	$62,816.00	$63,978.00
2026-08-14	$63,029.00	$62,523.00	$63,615.00
2026-08-15	$63,056.00	$62,890.00	$63,176.00
2026-08-16	$62,873.00	$62,678.00	$63,368.00
2026-08-17	$64,494.00	$62,730.00	$64,580.00
2026-08-18	$64,696.00	$64,000.00	$65,018.00
2026-08-19	$69,323.00	$64,122.00	$70,224.00
2026-08-20	$72,996.00	$68,898.00	$73,370.00
2026-08-21	$78,383.00	$73,001.00	$79,584.00
2026-08-22	$77,133.00	$76,558.00	$78,885.00
2026-08-23	$77,804.00	$75,608.00	$78,118.00
2026-08-24	$78,996.00	$76,693.00	$80,035.00
2026-08-25	$78,494.00	$77,794.00	$81,299.00
2026-08-26	$79,026.00	$77,618.00	$79,226.00
2026-08-27	$80,221.00	$78,547.00	$80,801.00
2026-08-28	$77,832.00	$76,831.00	$81,483.00
2026-08-29	$78,228.00	$77,341.00	$78,331.00
2026-08-30	$77,659.00	$76,971.00	$79,389.00

Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →