Liquidations › Survival

DOGE leverage survival

Across 90 DOGE daily closes, 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, a 30-day long at 10× would have been closed out on 62 of them, 68.89% — while 3× survived every one. The prices are real; the closing rule is a model. Both come from Hyperliquid — its candles, and its margin table. Every cell asks one checkable question about an observed price path — a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days: did the maintenance-margin threshold get crossed, and on which day? No price here is simulated. But deciding that a position would have closed takes assumptions, and they are listed below rather than left implicit. That is a smaller set than the density map needs, which is the honest version of the claim this paragraph used to make.

Not investment advice — modelled figures from stated assumptions. Terms and disclaimer

DOGE daily candles from Hyperliquid — real traded days only; the venue's pre-launch backfill carries zero volume and is excluded. Entry days 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, each with a complete 30-day window, so no column is flattered by having had less time to fail.

The same map, counted

Leverage	Entry days tested	Closed within 30d	Survived	Survival rate	Median days to closure
10× · max	90	62	28	31.1%	5
9×	90	54	36	40.0%	5.5
7×	90	34	56	62.2%	8.5
6×	90	29	61	67.8%	11
5×	90	18	72	80.0%	12.5
4×	90	5	85	94.4%	22
3×	90	0	90	100.0%	—
2×	90	0	90	100.0%	—

What the closing rule assumes

Every one of these would move some cells. They are not all in the same direction, so the grid is not simply optimistic or simply pessimistic — it is a rule applied consistently, with these six things left out. The same model against a real crash, February 2026 →

Assumption	What is left out	Which way it bends the answer
No funding	A leveraged position pays or receives funding every settlement. Over a 30-day hold that is 720 payments on this venue, and it moves margin, not price.	Usually too kind: Hyperliquid's base rate has longs paying shorts, and a long paying funding runs out of margin sooner than the grid says.
No fees	Opening and closing both cost. Small beside funding over 30 days, and the same sign as the funding a long usually pays.	Too kind, slightly.
Isolated margin	Each position is assumed to stand on its own margin, with no account balance behind it and no top-ups.	Too harsh for anyone trading cross-margin or adding margin — those positions survive longer.
Traded price, not mark price	Exchanges liquidate against a mark or index price, which is smoothed. This tests the candle's own low and high.	Too harsh: a thin wick can cross this threshold without moving the mark that far.
Hyperliquid's tier 1	5.000%, from the first tier of Hyperliquid's margin table for DOGE — this page names the venue because a maintenance margin is venue-specific and "the venue's table" left a reader to guess which. Real tiers step up with position size; only the first is used.	Too kind at large size, exact at small size.
Daily candles	The check is one low and one high per day, so the day a position closes is known and the hour is not.	Neither — it limits resolution, not direction.

The 90 entry days (30 further days are read past the last one)

Entry day (UTC)	Close	Low	High
2026-06-02	$0.09271	$0.09118	$0.10126
2026-06-03	$0.09137	$0.09052	$0.09453
2026-06-04	$0.08853	$0.08576	$0.09181
2026-06-05	$0.08144	$0.07896	$0.08873
2026-06-06	$0.08185	$0.07763	$0.08297
2026-06-07	$0.08623	$0.08160	$0.08751
2026-06-08	$0.08628	$0.08434	$0.08749
2026-06-09	$0.08475	$0.08314	$0.08670
2026-06-10	$0.08293	$0.08186	$0.08538
2026-06-11	$0.08603	$0.08292	$0.08705
2026-06-12	$0.08596	$0.08502	$0.09240
2026-06-13	$0.08787	$0.08578	$0.08878
2026-06-14	$0.08887	$0.08566	$0.08910
2026-06-15	$0.08810	$0.08776	$0.09092
2026-06-16	$0.08713	$0.08621	$0.08903
2026-06-17	$0.08590	$0.08465	$0.08805
2026-06-18	$0.08349	$0.08182	$0.08654
2026-06-19	$0.08351	$0.08184	$0.08391
2026-06-20	$0.08368	$0.08262	$0.08428
2026-06-21	$0.08218	$0.08211	$0.08381
2026-06-22	$0.08244	$0.08186	$0.08504
2026-06-23	$0.07884	$0.07827	$0.08268
2026-06-24	$0.07610	$0.07280	$0.07971
2026-06-25	$0.07486	$0.07142	$0.07746
2026-06-26	$0.07575	$0.07210	$0.07612
2026-06-27	$0.07448	$0.07407	$0.07639
2026-06-28	$0.07316	$0.07216	$0.07465
2026-06-29	$0.07341	$0.07192	$0.07422
2026-06-30	$0.07205	$0.06955	$0.07352
2026-07-01	$0.07218	$0.07050	$0.07394
2026-07-02	$0.07414	$0.07163	$0.07555
2026-07-03	$0.07755	$0.07393	$0.07849
2026-07-04	$0.07763	$0.07660	$0.07937
2026-07-05	$0.07785	$0.07531	$0.07879
2026-07-06	$0.07662	$0.07436	$0.07832
2026-07-07	$0.07416	$0.07360	$0.07699
2026-07-08	$0.07236	$0.07098	$0.07443
2026-07-09	$0.07286	$0.07196	$0.07354
2026-07-10	$0.07409	$0.07263	$0.07467
2026-07-11	$0.07320	$0.07316	$0.07556
2026-07-12	$0.07269	$0.07226	$0.07384
2026-07-13	$0.07192	$0.07090	$0.07415
2026-07-14	$0.07442	$0.07142	$0.07536
2026-07-15	$0.07405	$0.07337	$0.07525
2026-07-16	$0.07238	$0.07210	$0.07444
2026-07-17	$0.07252	$0.07096	$0.07296
2026-07-18	$0.07250	$0.07191	$0.07274
2026-07-19	$0.07241	$0.07170	$0.07280
2026-07-20	$0.07219	$0.07108	$0.07357
2026-07-21	$0.07336	$0.07188	$0.07382
2026-07-22	$0.07297	$0.07208	$0.07386
2026-07-23	$0.06919	$0.06840	$0.07318
2026-07-24	$0.06954	$0.06818	$0.07012
2026-07-25	$0.07170	$0.06915	$0.07365
2026-07-26	$0.07338	$0.07158	$0.07404
2026-07-27	$0.07036	$0.07009	$0.07350
2026-07-28	$0.07086	$0.06920	$0.07137
2026-07-29	$0.07011	$0.06883	$0.07116
2026-07-30	$0.07058	$0.06962	$0.07098
2026-07-31	$0.06957	$0.06848	$0.07096
2026-08-01	$0.06912	$0.06780	$0.07025
2026-08-02	$0.07078	$0.06910	$0.07144
2026-08-03	$0.07020	$0.06895	$0.07090
2026-08-04	$0.07005	$0.06975	$0.07068
2026-08-05	$0.07004	$0.06924	$0.07053
2026-08-06	$0.06906	$0.06821	$0.07014
2026-08-07	$0.06961	$0.06878	$0.07025
2026-08-08	$0.07041	$0.06951	$0.07151
2026-08-09	$0.06933	$0.06925	$0.07098
2026-08-10	$0.06967	$0.06909	$0.07022
2026-08-11	$0.07188	$0.06961	$0.07311
2026-08-12	$0.06968	$0.06887	$0.07252
2026-08-13	$0.07015	$0.06951	$0.07080
2026-08-14	$0.07004	$0.06921	$0.07035
2026-08-15	$0.06959	$0.06951	$0.07052
2026-08-16	$0.06956	$0.06905	$0.07016
2026-08-17	$0.07042	$0.06945	$0.07059
2026-08-18	$0.07024	$0.06961	$0.07053
2026-08-19	$0.07507	$0.06984	$0.07638
2026-08-20	$0.08053	$0.07447	$0.08361
2026-08-21	$0.09165	$0.08037	$0.09491
2026-08-22	$0.09198	$0.08244	$0.10106
2026-08-23	$0.09348	$0.08875	$0.09459
2026-08-24	$0.09017	$0.08802	$0.09369
2026-08-25	$0.08568	$0.08482	$0.09315
2026-08-26	$0.08766	$0.08383	$0.08781
2026-08-27	$0.08912	$0.08617	$0.08998
2026-08-28	$0.08522	$0.08379	$0.09028
2026-08-29	$0.08528	$0.08416	$0.08569
2026-08-30	$0.08203	$0.08077	$0.08647

Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →