Liquidations › Survival
Leverage survival
Nothing here is modelled. Every cell is one checkable question about the real price path: a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days — did the rules close it, and on which day? That is what separates this from the modelled density map, which answers a different question and needs assumptions to do it.
The same map, counted
| Leverage | Entry days tested | Closed within 30d | Survived | Survival rate | Median days to closure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25× · max | 90 | 81 | 9 | 10.0% | 1 |
| 21× | 90 | 78 | 12 | 13.3% | 2 |
| 17× | 90 | 72 | 18 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 14× | 90 | 68 | 22 | 24.4% | 6 |
| 11× | 90 | 65 | 25 | 27.8% | 9 |
| 9× | 90 | 62 | 28 | 31.1% | 11 |
| 7× | 90 | 50 | 40 | 44.4% | 14 |
| 5× | 90 | 31 | 59 | 65.6% | 17 |
| 4× | 90 | 29 | 61 | 67.8% | 18 |
| 3× | 90 | 10 | 80 | 88.9% | 26 |
| 2× | 90 | 0 | 90 | 100.0% | — |
The daily price series this is computed from (90 rows)
| Entry day (UTC) | Close | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | $2,417.10 | $2,316.70 | $2,462.50 |
| 2026-04-18 | $2,348.90 | $2,337.20 | $2,426.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | $2,261.30 | $2,251.00 | $2,353.90 |
| 2026-04-20 | $2,312.10 | $2,259.00 | $2,345.90 |
| 2026-04-21 | $2,326.30 | $2,283.80 | $2,337.10 |
| 2026-04-22 | $2,372.70 | $2,312.60 | $2,422.20 |
| 2026-04-23 | $2,328.90 | $2,283.90 | $2,380.10 |
| 2026-04-24 | $2,313.80 | $2,298.80 | $2,336.80 |
| 2026-04-25 | $2,318.10 | $2,300.00 | $2,322.30 |
| 2026-04-26 | $2,368.40 | $2,304.90 | $2,378.70 |
| 2026-04-27 | $2,302.30 | $2,262.20 | $2,403.40 |
| 2026-04-28 | $2,288.80 | $2,255.30 | $2,309.40 |
| 2026-04-29 | $2,251.50 | $2,218.00 | $2,345.50 |
| 2026-04-30 | $2,256.40 | $2,230.40 | $2,278.20 |
| 2026-05-01 | $2,294.70 | $2,256.40 | $2,324.20 |
| 2026-05-02 | $2,316.00 | $2,291.90 | $2,341.90 |
| 2026-05-03 | $2,321.70 | $2,296.80 | $2,355.50 |
| 2026-05-04 | $2,346.00 | $2,308.40 | $2,397.90 |
| 2026-05-05 | $2,359.30 | $2,343.90 | $2,398.40 |
| 2026-05-06 | $2,350.20 | $2,336.30 | $2,423.80 |
| 2026-05-07 | $2,290.60 | $2,279.30 | $2,351.70 |
| 2026-05-08 | $2,306.80 | $2,263.40 | $2,321.10 |
| 2026-05-09 | $2,326.00 | $2,298.80 | $2,337.50 |
| 2026-05-10 | $2,370.60 | $2,310.60 | $2,382.30 |
| 2026-05-11 | $2,339.00 | $2,302.10 | $2,374.30 |
| 2026-05-12 | $2,273.70 | $2,255.20 | $2,340.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | $2,258.00 | $2,233.60 | $2,323.20 |
| 2026-05-14 | $2,282.10 | $2,237.70 | $2,318.70 |
| 2026-05-15 | $2,223.30 | $2,204.00 | $2,299.30 |
| 2026-05-16 | $2,179.40 | $2,161.20 | $2,230.50 |
| 2026-05-17 | $2,130.10 | $2,089.40 | $2,197.20 |
| 2026-05-18 | $2,129.70 | $2,077.00 | $2,156.10 |
| 2026-05-19 | $2,110.80 | $2,093.50 | $2,146.30 |
| 2026-05-20 | $2,129.10 | $2,102.50 | $2,148.20 |
| 2026-05-21 | $2,133.10 | $2,104.20 | $2,156.70 |
| 2026-05-22 | $2,064.80 | $2,056.20 | $2,140.90 |
| 2026-05-23 | $2,116.80 | $2,008.50 | $2,149.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | $2,098.60 | $2,061.40 | $2,130.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | $2,112.40 | $2,090.90 | $2,141.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | $2,072.60 | $2,053.60 | $2,140.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | $2,023.90 | $2,015.20 | $2,096.20 |
| 2026-05-28 | $2,009.20 | $1,966.60 | $2,029.30 |
| 2026-05-29 | $2,013.70 | $1,976.10 | $2,046.70 |
| 2026-05-30 | $2,021.60 | $2,001.10 | $2,032.70 |
| 2026-05-31 | $2,006.70 | $1,993.40 | $2,037.20 |
| 2026-06-01 | $2,006.90 | $1,954.80 | $2,021.50 |
| 2026-06-02 | $1,859.00 | $1,838.00 | $2,007.00 |
| 2026-06-03 | $1,812.30 | $1,770.00 | $1,892.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | $1,770.30 | $1,716.70 | $1,819.90 |
| 2026-06-05 | $1,582.40 | $1,539.40 | $1,773.90 |
| 2026-06-06 | $1,568.80 | $1,504.40 | $1,600.70 |
| 2026-06-07 | $1,689.40 | $1,563.30 | $1,720.20 |
| 2026-06-08 | $1,688.80 | $1,643.70 | $1,713.80 |
| 2026-06-09 | $1,638.50 | $1,609.80 | $1,696.60 |
| 2026-06-10 | $1,620.90 | $1,603.40 | $1,667.40 |
| 2026-06-11 | $1,672.70 | $1,620.90 | $1,693.70 |
| 2026-06-12 | $1,665.70 | $1,651.20 | $1,690.80 |
| 2026-06-13 | $1,680.30 | $1,661.60 | $1,696.40 |
| 2026-06-14 | $1,725.30 | $1,654.60 | $1,732.40 |
| 2026-06-15 | $1,795.50 | $1,708.80 | $1,849.50 |
| 2026-06-16 | $1,792.80 | $1,757.80 | $1,839.40 |
| 2026-06-17 | $1,749.70 | $1,724.90 | $1,810.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | $1,711.10 | $1,671.20 | $1,762.50 |
| 2026-06-19 | $1,711.20 | $1,678.40 | $1,719.70 |
| 2026-06-20 | $1,740.50 | $1,703.70 | $1,750.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | $1,706.10 | $1,701.60 | $1,740.60 |
| 2026-06-22 | $1,727.90 | $1,706.10 | $1,778.60 |
| 2026-06-23 | $1,666.40 | $1,634.10 | $1,735.80 |
| 2026-06-24 | $1,621.20 | $1,551.30 | $1,691.10 |
| 2026-06-25 | $1,566.60 | $1,531.30 | $1,659.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | $1,577.60 | $1,511.00 | $1,592.80 |
| 2026-06-27 | $1,572.90 | $1,562.10 | $1,609.90 |
| 2026-06-28 | $1,570.90 | $1,547.60 | $1,587.20 |
| 2026-06-29 | $1,612.40 | $1,549.30 | $1,636.20 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1,571.40 | $1,549.90 | $1,613.40 |
| 2026-07-01 | $1,608.60 | $1,552.00 | $1,645.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | $1,701.30 | $1,596.60 | $1,724.20 |
| 2026-07-03 | $1,759.30 | $1,695.20 | $1,776.30 |
| 2026-07-04 | $1,781.10 | $1,744.80 | $1,807.40 |
| 2026-07-05 | $1,786.30 | $1,749.50 | $1,809.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | $1,800.40 | $1,729.60 | $1,834.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | $1,772.00 | $1,757.80 | $1,813.30 |
| 2026-07-08 | $1,743.60 | $1,713.00 | $1,784.80 |
| 2026-07-09 | $1,745.00 | $1,722.00 | $1,762.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | $1,796.50 | $1,737.50 | $1,811.50 |
| 2026-07-11 | $1,787.20 | $1,786.30 | $1,829.10 |
| 2026-07-12 | $1,806.70 | $1,778.80 | $1,826.60 |
| 2026-07-13 | $1,776.80 | $1,750.50 | $1,845.80 |
| 2026-07-14 | $1,891.70 | $1,773.70 | $1,896.50 |
| 2026-07-15 | $1,918.30 | $1,864.10 | $1,946.50 |
Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →