Liquidations › Survival

LINK leverage survival

Across 90 LINK daily closes, 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, a 30-day long at 10× would have been closed out on 50 of them, 55.56% — while 4× survived every one. The prices are real; the closing rule is a model. Both come from Hyperliquid — its candles, and its margin table. Every cell asks one checkable question about an observed price path — a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days: did the maintenance-margin threshold get crossed, and on which day? No price here is simulated. But deciding that a position would have closed takes assumptions, and they are listed below rather than left implicit. That is a smaller set than the density map needs, which is the honest version of the claim this paragraph used to make.

Not investment advice — modelled figures from stated assumptions. Terms and disclaimer

LINK daily candles from Hyperliquid — real traded days only; the venue's pre-launch backfill carries zero volume and is excluded. Entry days 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, each with a complete 30-day window, so no column is flattered by having had less time to fail.

The same map, counted

Leverage	Entry days tested	Closed within 30d	Survived	Survival rate	Median days to closure
10× · max	90	50	40	44.4%	5
9×	90	37	53	58.9%	9
7×	90	21	69	76.7%	8
6×	90	10	80	88.9%	7.5
5×	90	2	88	97.8%	3.5
4×	90	0	90	100.0%	—
3×	90	0	90	100.0%	—
2×	90	0	90	100.0%	—

What the closing rule assumes

Every one of these would move some cells. They are not all in the same direction, so the grid is not simply optimistic or simply pessimistic — it is a rule applied consistently, with these six things left out. The same model against a real crash, February 2026 →

Assumption	What is left out	Which way it bends the answer
No funding	A leveraged position pays or receives funding every settlement. Over a 30-day hold that is 720 payments on this venue, and it moves margin, not price.	Usually too kind: Hyperliquid's base rate has longs paying shorts, and a long paying funding runs out of margin sooner than the grid says.
No fees	Opening and closing both cost. Small beside funding over 30 days, and the same sign as the funding a long usually pays.	Too kind, slightly.
Isolated margin	Each position is assumed to stand on its own margin, with no account balance behind it and no top-ups.	Too harsh for anyone trading cross-margin or adding margin — those positions survive longer.
Traded price, not mark price	Exchanges liquidate against a mark or index price, which is smoothed. This tests the candle's own low and high.	Too harsh: a thin wick can cross this threshold without moving the mark that far.
Hyperliquid's tier 1	5.000%, from the first tier of Hyperliquid's margin table for LINK — this page names the venue because a maintenance margin is venue-specific and "the venue's table" left a reader to guess which. Real tiers step up with position size; only the first is used.	Too kind at large size, exact at small size.
Daily candles	The check is one low and one high per day, so the day a position closes is known and the hour is not.	Neither — it limits resolution, not direction.

The 90 entry days (30 further days are read past the last one)

Entry day (UTC)	Close	Low	High
2026-06-02	$8.368	$8.245	$9.068
2026-06-03	$8.330	$8.110	$8.613
2026-06-04	$8.012	$7.791	$8.394
2026-06-05	$7.368	$7.115	$8.036
2026-06-06	$7.389	$6.987	$7.462
2026-06-07	$7.909	$7.372	$8.031
2026-06-08	$7.996	$7.721	$8.123
2026-06-09	$7.833	$7.646	$8.025
2026-06-10	$7.564	$7.483	$7.894
2026-06-11	$7.885	$7.559	$7.982
2026-06-12	$7.862	$7.748	$8.006
2026-06-13	$7.980	$7.852	$8.046
2026-06-14	$8.184	$7.785	$8.199
2026-06-15	$8.297	$8.108	$8.601
2026-06-16	$8.275	$8.086	$8.476
2026-06-17	$8.087	$7.939	$8.412
2026-06-18	$8.015	$7.769	$8.132
2026-06-19	$7.946	$7.767	$8.041
2026-06-20	$7.988	$7.820	$8.014
2026-06-21	$7.777	$7.767	$8.009
2026-06-22	$7.871	$7.779	$8.153
2026-06-23	$7.638	$7.467	$7.913
2026-06-24	$7.420	$7.117	$7.694
2026-06-25	$7.238	$7.002	$7.547
2026-06-26	$7.351	$7.012	$7.398
2026-06-27	$7.294	$7.248	$7.472
2026-06-28	$7.268	$7.158	$7.353
2026-06-29	$7.380	$7.180	$7.499
2026-06-30	$7.200	$7.121	$7.397
2026-07-01	$7.361	$7.073	$7.534
2026-07-02	$7.751	$7.303	$7.946
2026-07-03	$7.980	$7.727	$8.038
2026-07-04	$8.008	$7.886	$8.180
2026-07-05	$8.065	$7.841	$8.154
2026-07-06	$8.020	$7.763	$8.185
2026-07-07	$7.851	$7.800	$8.070
2026-07-08	$7.639	$7.523	$7.894
2026-07-09	$7.733	$7.573	$7.809
2026-07-10	$7.972	$7.710	$8.018
2026-07-11	$7.914	$7.908	$8.121
2026-07-12	$7.996	$7.861	$8.103
2026-07-13	$7.888	$7.795	$8.134
2026-07-14	$8.344	$7.866	$8.400
2026-07-15	$8.542	$8.269	$8.641
2026-07-16	$8.338	$8.310	$8.574
2026-07-17	$8.251	$8.005	$8.367
2026-07-18	$8.346	$8.211	$8.376
2026-07-19	$8.388	$8.288	$8.406
2026-07-20	$8.591	$8.288	$8.651
2026-07-21	$8.658	$8.569	$8.761
2026-07-22	$8.625	$8.575	$8.761
2026-07-23	$8.468	$8.416	$8.682
2026-07-24	$8.336	$8.282	$8.577
2026-07-25	$8.379	$8.265	$8.433
2026-07-26	$8.824	$8.374	$8.839
2026-07-27	$8.376	$8.343	$8.915
2026-07-28	$8.443	$8.190	$8.451
2026-07-29	$8.329	$8.160	$8.508
2026-07-30	$8.453	$8.260	$8.528
2026-07-31	$8.166	$8.018	$8.510
2026-08-01	$8.061	$7.886	$8.242
2026-08-02	$8.377	$8.051	$8.451
2026-08-03	$8.186	$8.157	$8.388
2026-08-04	$8.147	$8.112	$8.260
2026-08-05	$8.155	$8.063	$8.251
2026-08-06	$8.191	$8.066	$8.339
2026-08-07	$8.184	$8.103	$8.314
2026-08-08	$8.304	$8.164	$8.394
2026-08-09	$8.185	$8.171	$8.389
2026-08-10	$8.296	$8.162	$8.370
2026-08-11	$8.777	$8.290	$8.809
2026-08-12	$8.669	$8.627	$8.887
2026-08-13	$8.888	$8.614	$8.902
2026-08-14	$8.963	$8.720	$8.999
2026-08-15	$9.469	$8.963	$9.746
2026-08-16	$9.384	$9.292	$9.512
2026-08-17	$9.538	$9.356	$9.571
2026-08-18	$9.531	$9.325	$9.552
2026-08-19	$10.546	$9.483	$10.893
2026-08-20	$10.701	$10.360	$10.887
2026-08-21	$12.009	$10.696	$12.426
2026-08-22	$11.664	$10.925	$12.658
2026-08-23	$11.558	$11.066	$11.755
2026-08-24	$11.625	$11.305	$11.793
2026-08-25	$11.288	$11.134	$11.982
2026-08-26	$11.627	$11.061	$11.629
2026-08-27	$11.915	$11.456	$11.978
2026-08-28	$11.431	$11.256	$12.047
2026-08-29	$11.456	$11.276	$11.486
2026-08-30	$11.141	$10.967	$11.783

Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →