Liquidations › Survival

LTC leverage survival

Across 90 LTC daily closes, 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, a 30-day long at 10× would have been closed out on 39 of them, 43.33% — while 4× survived every one. The prices are real; the closing rule is a model. Both come from Hyperliquid — its candles, and its margin table. Every cell asks one checkable question about an observed price path — a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days: did the maintenance-margin threshold get crossed, and on which day? No price here is simulated. But deciding that a position would have closed takes assumptions, and they are listed below rather than left implicit. That is a smaller set than the density map needs, which is the honest version of the claim this paragraph used to make.

Not investment advice — modelled figures from stated assumptions. Terms and disclaimer

LTC daily candles from Hyperliquid — real traded days only; the venue's pre-launch backfill carries zero volume and is excluded. Entry days 2 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, each with a complete 30-day window, so no column is flattered by having had less time to fail.

The same map, counted

Leverage	Entry days tested	Closed within 30d	Survived	Survival rate	Median days to closure
10× · max	90	39	51	56.7%	5
9×	90	32	58	64.4%	6.5
7×	90	14	76	84.4%	5.5
6×	90	7	83	92.2%	8
5×	90	2	88	97.8%	21.5
4×	90	0	90	100.0%	—
3×	90	0	90	100.0%	—
2×	90	0	90	100.0%	—

What the closing rule assumes

Every one of these would move some cells. They are not all in the same direction, so the grid is not simply optimistic or simply pessimistic — it is a rule applied consistently, with these six things left out. The same model against a real crash, February 2026 →

Assumption	What is left out	Which way it bends the answer
No funding	A leveraged position pays or receives funding every settlement. Over a 30-day hold that is 720 payments on this venue, and it moves margin, not price.	Usually too kind: Hyperliquid's base rate has longs paying shorts, and a long paying funding runs out of margin sooner than the grid says.
No fees	Opening and closing both cost. Small beside funding over 30 days, and the same sign as the funding a long usually pays.	Too kind, slightly.
Isolated margin	Each position is assumed to stand on its own margin, with no account balance behind it and no top-ups.	Too harsh for anyone trading cross-margin or adding margin — those positions survive longer.
Traded price, not mark price	Exchanges liquidate against a mark or index price, which is smoothed. This tests the candle's own low and high.	Too harsh: a thin wick can cross this threshold without moving the mark that far.
Hyperliquid's tier 1	5.000%, from the first tier of Hyperliquid's margin table for LTC — this page names the venue because a maintenance margin is venue-specific and "the venue's table" left a reader to guess which. Real tiers step up with position size; only the first is used.	Too kind at large size, exact at small size.
Daily candles	The check is one low and one high per day, so the day a position closes is known and the hour is not.	Neither — it limits resolution, not direction.

The 90 entry days (30 further days are read past the last one)

Entry day (UTC)	Close	Low	High
2026-06-02	$46.879	$46.280	$50.815
2026-06-03	$47.098	$46.829	$48.500
2026-06-04	$45.607	$43.938	$47.448
2026-06-05	$43.303	$41.972	$45.798
2026-06-06	$41.367	$40.459	$44.013
2026-06-07	$42.811	$41.092	$43.443
2026-06-08	$43.010	$42.026	$43.784
2026-06-09	$42.980	$41.798	$43.476
2026-06-10	$41.725	$41.225	$43.220
2026-06-11	$42.458	$41.698	$42.905
2026-06-12	$43.061	$42.148	$43.521
2026-06-13	$44.323	$42.941	$44.367
2026-06-14	$45.390	$43.721	$45.390
2026-06-15	$45.776	$44.772	$46.351
2026-06-16	$45.705	$44.520	$46.376
2026-06-17	$44.917	$44.412	$45.982
2026-06-18	$43.861	$43.007	$45.067
2026-06-19	$44.069	$43.179	$44.555
2026-06-20	$44.541	$43.771	$44.632
2026-06-21	$44.488	$44.400	$46.061
2026-06-22	$44.562	$44.285	$45.842
2026-06-23	$42.152	$41.785	$44.670
2026-06-24	$41.162	$39.335	$42.332
2026-06-25	$40.896	$39.251	$41.959
2026-06-26	$41.888	$40.004	$42.134
2026-06-27	$42.165	$41.700	$43.283
2026-06-28	$42.457	$41.900	$43.349
2026-06-29	$43.160	$42.098	$43.407
2026-06-30	$41.931	$41.585	$43.180
2026-07-01	$42.686	$41.122	$43.693
2026-07-02	$43.522	$42.422	$43.897
2026-07-03	$44.828	$43.092	$45.329
2026-07-04	$44.857	$43.958	$45.678
2026-07-05	$45.801	$44.012	$46.151
2026-07-06	$44.816	$43.730	$46.016
2026-07-07	$43.854	$43.667	$44.989
2026-07-08	$43.640	$43.179	$44.023
2026-07-09	$43.813	$43.433	$44.316
2026-07-10	$44.766	$43.576	$44.880
2026-07-11	$44.650	$44.599	$45.519
2026-07-12	$43.975	$43.956	$44.906
2026-07-13	$43.510	$42.889	$44.525
2026-07-14	$45.377	$43.402	$45.469
2026-07-15	$45.142	$44.613	$46.067
2026-07-16	$44.925	$44.342	$45.403
2026-07-17	$45.141	$44.087	$45.864
2026-07-18	$46.990	$45.049	$47.857
2026-07-19	$47.056	$46.701	$47.857
2026-07-20	$47.367	$46.418	$47.824
2026-07-21	$46.838	$46.466	$48.236
2026-07-22	$47.111	$46.306	$47.597
2026-07-23	$46.936	$46.200	$47.499
2026-07-24	$46.339	$45.941	$47.394
2026-07-25	$46.544	$45.770	$46.704
2026-07-26	$47.841	$46.477	$48.250
2026-07-27	$46.022	$45.872	$47.842
2026-07-28	$46.188	$45.867	$46.694
2026-07-29	$45.414	$44.305	$46.368
2026-07-30	$45.549	$44.850	$45.797
2026-07-31	$44.265	$44.160	$45.860
2026-08-01	$44.218	$43.586	$44.744
2026-08-02	$44.661	$44.136	$45.030
2026-08-03	$44.266	$44.018	$44.741
2026-08-04	$44.814	$44.048	$45.130
2026-08-05	$45.303	$44.702	$45.402
2026-08-06	$45.452	$44.782	$45.826
2026-08-07	$45.518	$44.759	$46.051
2026-08-08	$45.991	$45.414	$46.115
2026-08-09	$45.437	$45.390	$46.455
2026-08-10	$45.112	$45.000	$45.731
2026-08-11	$45.490	$44.925	$45.558
2026-08-12	$44.870	$44.618	$45.669
2026-08-13	$44.804	$44.622	$45.052
2026-08-14	$43.823	$43.370	$44.915
2026-08-15	$44.072	$43.632	$44.299
2026-08-16	$44.104	$44.026	$44.764
2026-08-17	$44.554	$43.815	$44.618
2026-08-18	$44.351	$44.137	$44.741
2026-08-19	$46.762	$44.317	$47.214
2026-08-20	$47.823	$46.500	$48.590
2026-08-21	$53.274	$47.785	$54.278
2026-08-22	$52.515	$50.216	$55.532
2026-08-23	$52.336	$50.641	$53.282
2026-08-24	$51.643	$51.241	$54.122
2026-08-25	$49.942	$49.458	$52.980
2026-08-26	$50.488	$49.178	$50.889
2026-08-27	$49.889	$49.382	$50.493
2026-08-28	$49.311	$47.971	$50.485
2026-08-29	$48.994	$48.563	$49.485
2026-08-30	$47.962	$47.400	$50.102

Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →