Liquidations › Survival
Leverage survival
Nothing here is modelled. Every cell is one checkable question about the real price path: a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days — did the rules close it, and on which day? That is what separates this from the modelled density map, which answers a different question and needs assumptions to do it.
The same map, counted
| Leverage | Entry days tested | Closed within 30d | Survived | Survival rate | Median days to closure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20× · max | 90 | 84 | 6 | 6.7% | 2 |
| 17× | 90 | 82 | 8 | 8.9% | 3 |
| 14× | 90 | 73 | 17 | 18.9% | 4 |
| 12× | 90 | 65 | 25 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 9× | 90 | 50 | 40 | 44.4% | 9 |
| 7× | 90 | 42 | 48 | 53.3% | 13 |
| 6× | 90 | 31 | 59 | 65.6% | 13 |
| 4× | 90 | 27 | 63 | 70.0% | 17 |
| 3× | 90 | 9 | 81 | 90.0% | 25 |
| 2× | 90 | 0 | 90 | 100.0% | — |
The daily price series this is computed from (90 rows)
| Entry day (UTC) | Close | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | $88.704 | $87.324 | $90.768 |
| 2026-04-18 | $86.104 | $85.769 | $89.100 |
| 2026-04-19 | $83.386 | $82.835 | $87.085 |
| 2026-04-20 | $85.239 | $83.290 | $86.152 |
| 2026-04-21 | $85.999 | $84.247 | $86.854 |
| 2026-04-22 | $86.843 | $85.985 | $89.296 |
| 2026-04-23 | $86.074 | $84.500 | $87.110 |
| 2026-04-24 | $86.124 | $84.932 | $86.880 |
| 2026-04-25 | $86.118 | $85.500 | $86.764 |
| 2026-04-26 | $86.876 | $85.799 | $87.292 |
| 2026-04-27 | $84.768 | $83.608 | $88.055 |
| 2026-04-28 | $84.033 | $82.940 | $84.881 |
| 2026-04-29 | $83.021 | $81.352 | $85.530 |
| 2026-04-30 | $83.044 | $82.128 | $83.975 |
| 2026-05-01 | $83.719 | $83.040 | $84.800 |
| 2026-05-02 | $84.228 | $83.401 | $84.931 |
| 2026-05-03 | $83.875 | $83.548 | $84.922 |
| 2026-05-04 | $84.046 | $83.213 | $85.903 |
| 2026-05-05 | $86.242 | $83.999 | $86.948 |
| 2026-05-06 | $89.103 | $86.073 | $89.999 |
| 2026-05-07 | $88.382 | $87.570 | $90.425 |
| 2026-05-08 | $92.028 | $87.579 | $92.787 |
| 2026-05-09 | $93.118 | $91.871 | $94.216 |
| 2026-05-10 | $96.500 | $92.581 | $96.960 |
| 2026-05-11 | $97.371 | $94.133 | $98.420 |
| 2026-05-12 | $94.246 | $93.522 | $97.681 |
| 2026-05-13 | $91.115 | $90.260 | $95.944 |
| 2026-05-14 | $92.119 | $89.774 | $93.611 |
| 2026-05-15 | $89.206 | $88.457 | $92.623 |
| 2026-05-16 | $86.495 | $85.450 | $89.379 |
| 2026-05-17 | $85.176 | $83.311 | $87.257 |
| 2026-05-18 | $85.362 | $83.484 | $85.762 |
| 2026-05-19 | $84.258 | $83.665 | $85.926 |
| 2026-05-20 | $86.122 | $83.829 | $87.048 |
| 2026-05-21 | $87.331 | $85.285 | $88.000 |
| 2026-05-22 | $84.326 | $83.934 | $87.832 |
| 2026-05-23 | $85.694 | $81.448 | $87.488 |
| 2026-05-24 | $85.213 | $83.641 | $87.000 |
| 2026-05-25 | $85.018 | $84.670 | $86.485 |
| 2026-05-26 | $83.639 | $83.095 | $86.088 |
| 2026-05-27 | $82.382 | $82.081 | $84.776 |
| 2026-05-28 | $82.091 | $79.953 | $82.979 |
| 2026-05-29 | $82.009 | $80.333 | $83.223 |
| 2026-05-30 | $82.700 | $81.843 | $83.136 |
| 2026-05-31 | $82.417 | $81.313 | $83.384 |
| 2026-06-01 | $81.250 | $79.091 | $83.094 |
| 2026-06-02 | $74.159 | $72.682 | $81.272 |
| 2026-06-03 | $71.592 | $70.888 | $75.687 |
| 2026-06-04 | $68.843 | $66.671 | $72.060 |
| 2026-06-05 | $63.591 | $61.440 | $69.060 |
| 2026-06-06 | $62.162 | $60.062 | $64.820 |
| 2026-06-07 | $66.468 | $61.924 | $67.925 |
| 2026-06-08 | $66.772 | $64.936 | $68.151 |
| 2026-06-09 | $64.923 | $63.501 | $67.438 |
| 2026-06-10 | $63.183 | $62.318 | $65.756 |
| 2026-06-11 | $66.882 | $63.170 | $67.384 |
| 2026-06-12 | $66.771 | $65.923 | $68.780 |
| 2026-06-13 | $68.887 | $66.588 | $69.532 |
| 2026-06-14 | $71.299 | $66.905 | $71.311 |
| 2026-06-15 | $73.951 | $70.720 | $76.025 |
| 2026-06-16 | $73.492 | $72.277 | $75.621 |
| 2026-06-17 | $72.006 | $70.773 | $74.700 |
| 2026-06-18 | $69.680 | $68.230 | $72.637 |
| 2026-06-19 | $69.707 | $67.882 | $70.043 |
| 2026-06-20 | $73.236 | $69.462 | $74.313 |
| 2026-06-21 | $72.420 | $72.262 | $74.653 |
| 2026-06-22 | $71.953 | $71.116 | $74.969 |
| 2026-06-23 | $69.639 | $68.061 | $72.006 |
| 2026-06-24 | $68.068 | $64.649 | $70.410 |
| 2026-06-25 | $67.661 | $63.964 | $69.614 |
| 2026-06-26 | $71.872 | $65.891 | $73.900 |
| 2026-06-27 | $70.452 | $70.175 | $73.230 |
| 2026-06-28 | $71.355 | $69.466 | $72.359 |
| 2026-06-29 | $75.188 | $70.323 | $76.596 |
| 2026-06-30 | $73.643 | $71.901 | $75.232 |
| 2026-07-01 | $77.453 | $72.237 | $78.921 |
| 2026-07-02 | $80.752 | $76.891 | $82.777 |
| 2026-07-03 | $82.367 | $80.350 | $83.286 |
| 2026-07-04 | $81.780 | $81.376 | $83.990 |
| 2026-07-05 | $81.583 | $79.661 | $82.499 |
| 2026-07-06 | $81.951 | $79.191 | $83.758 |
| 2026-07-07 | $80.523 | $80.300 | $82.773 |
| 2026-07-08 | $77.819 | $76.280 | $80.729 |
| 2026-07-09 | $78.023 | $76.650 | $78.812 |
| 2026-07-10 | $78.108 | $77.100 | $79.663 |
| 2026-07-11 | $76.753 | $76.747 | $78.976 |
| 2026-07-12 | $76.909 | $75.588 | $77.800 |
| 2026-07-13 | $74.960 | $74.059 | $78.150 |
| 2026-07-14 | $77.848 | $74.524 | $77.920 |
| 2026-07-15 | $77.245 | $76.891 | $79.000 |
Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →