Liquidations › Survival
Leverage survival
Nothing here is modelled. Every cell is one checkable question about the real price path: a long opened at that day's close, at that leverage, held 30 days — did the rules close it, and on which day? That is what separates this from the modelled density map, which answers a different question and needs assumptions to do it.
The same map, counted
| Leverage | Entry days tested | Closed within 30d | Survived | Survival rate | Median days to closure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20× · max | 90 | 85 | 5 | 5.6% | 2 |
| 17× | 90 | 83 | 7 | 7.8% | 3 |
| 14× | 90 | 81 | 9 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 12× | 90 | 80 | 10 | 11.1% | 9 |
| 9× | 90 | 58 | 32 | 35.6% | 11 |
| 7× | 90 | 41 | 49 | 54.4% | 13 |
| 6× | 90 | 35 | 55 | 61.1% | 15 |
| 4× | 90 | 20 | 70 | 77.8% | 25 |
| 3× | 90 | 0 | 90 | 100.0% | — |
| 2× | 90 | 0 | 90 | 100.0% | — |
The daily price series this is computed from (90 rows)
| Entry day (UTC) | Close | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | $1.47550 | $1.42190 | $1.50920 |
| 2026-04-18 | $1.43130 | $1.42290 | $1.48150 |
| 2026-04-19 | $1.39380 | $1.39190 | $1.44620 |
| 2026-04-20 | $1.42350 | $1.39300 | $1.43630 |
| 2026-04-21 | $1.43280 | $1.41060 | $1.44840 |
| 2026-04-22 | $1.42870 | $1.42600 | $1.46250 |
| 2026-04-23 | $1.43810 | $1.40810 | $1.44050 |
| 2026-04-24 | $1.43250 | $1.42310 | $1.44970 |
| 2026-04-25 | $1.42340 | $1.41800 | $1.43670 |
| 2026-04-26 | $1.43000 | $1.41700 | $1.43500 |
| 2026-04-27 | $1.40000 | $1.38340 | $1.44610 |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.38000 | $1.36720 | $1.40010 |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.36850 | $1.34490 | $1.40550 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.36720 | $1.35830 | $1.38350 |
| 2026-05-01 | $1.38510 | $1.36420 | $1.39890 |
| 2026-05-02 | $1.39290 | $1.38050 | $1.39980 |
| 2026-05-03 | $1.38710 | $1.38090 | $1.40350 |
| 2026-05-04 | $1.39100 | $1.38250 | $1.42020 |
| 2026-05-05 | $1.41210 | $1.38980 | $1.42190 |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.42390 | $1.40690 | $1.45640 |
| 2026-05-07 | $1.38570 | $1.37920 | $1.42490 |
| 2026-05-08 | $1.41750 | $1.37710 | $1.42670 |
| 2026-05-09 | $1.41990 | $1.41030 | $1.43510 |
| 2026-05-10 | $1.47300 | $1.41120 | $1.50870 |
| 2026-05-11 | $1.47750 | $1.43950 | $1.48820 |
| 2026-05-12 | $1.43610 | $1.41700 | $1.48420 |
| 2026-05-13 | $1.42660 | $1.41050 | $1.46890 |
| 2026-05-14 | $1.48460 | $1.42000 | $1.54950 |
| 2026-05-15 | $1.43370 | $1.42650 | $1.50000 |
| 2026-05-16 | $1.41290 | $1.39500 | $1.43830 |
| 2026-05-17 | $1.40080 | $1.37000 | $1.42820 |
| 2026-05-18 | $1.38970 | $1.36330 | $1.40190 |
| 2026-05-19 | $1.36090 | $1.35250 | $1.39680 |
| 2026-05-20 | $1.36660 | $1.34700 | $1.37960 |
| 2026-05-21 | $1.37280 | $1.35090 | $1.38580 |
| 2026-05-22 | $1.33330 | $1.32920 | $1.37520 |
| 2026-05-23 | $1.35760 | $1.30020 | $1.37510 |
| 2026-05-24 | $1.35010 | $1.33250 | $1.37020 |
| 2026-05-25 | $1.34970 | $1.34250 | $1.36480 |
| 2026-05-26 | $1.32810 | $1.32650 | $1.36470 |
| 2026-05-27 | $1.30690 | $1.30270 | $1.34310 |
| 2026-05-28 | $1.31480 | $1.26700 | $1.33820 |
| 2026-05-29 | $1.32900 | $1.29360 | $1.33280 |
| 2026-05-30 | $1.33990 | $1.32720 | $1.36500 |
| 2026-05-31 | $1.33230 | $1.32020 | $1.34760 |
| 2026-06-01 | $1.29680 | $1.27860 | $1.34050 |
| 2026-06-02 | $1.21080 | $1.19360 | $1.29660 |
| 2026-06-03 | $1.20040 | $1.18510 | $1.24880 |
| 2026-06-04 | $1.16810 | $1.14090 | $1.21150 |
| 2026-06-05 | $1.09720 | $1.06910 | $1.17420 |
| 2026-06-06 | $1.09280 | $1.04940 | $1.11380 |
| 2026-06-07 | $1.15480 | $1.08800 | $1.17350 |
| 2026-06-08 | $1.16740 | $1.13130 | $1.18590 |
| 2026-06-09 | $1.13680 | $1.11840 | $1.17610 |
| 2026-06-10 | $1.09660 | $1.08840 | $1.14030 |
| 2026-06-11 | $1.14150 | $1.09570 | $1.14950 |
| 2026-06-12 | $1.13160 | $1.12520 | $1.15720 |
| 2026-06-13 | $1.14970 | $1.12920 | $1.16030 |
| 2026-06-14 | $1.18630 | $1.12620 | $1.18690 |
| 2026-06-15 | $1.23770 | $1.17730 | $1.29260 |
| 2026-06-16 | $1.21650 | $1.20430 | $1.25520 |
| 2026-06-17 | $1.18610 | $1.17100 | $1.22690 |
| 2026-06-18 | $1.14620 | $1.13230 | $1.19150 |
| 2026-06-19 | $1.13570 | $1.11910 | $1.15260 |
| 2026-06-20 | $1.14970 | $1.13370 | $1.15520 |
| 2026-06-21 | $1.12460 | $1.12120 | $1.15290 |
| 2026-06-22 | $1.12900 | $1.12100 | $1.16350 |
| 2026-06-23 | $1.10980 | $1.09180 | $1.13320 |
| 2026-06-24 | $1.07280 | $1.04560 | $1.11320 |
| 2026-06-25 | $1.04240 | $1.01020 | $1.08900 |
| 2026-06-26 | $1.04820 | $1.00860 | $1.05530 |
| 2026-06-27 | $1.04670 | $1.04340 | $1.07670 |
| 2026-06-28 | $1.04760 | $1.03320 | $1.05820 |
| 2026-06-29 | $1.05810 | $1.03150 | $1.07630 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1.03970 | $1.02680 | $1.05850 |
| 2026-07-01 | $1.05240 | $1.02160 | $1.07340 |
| 2026-07-02 | $1.08730 | $1.04460 | $1.11200 |
| 2026-07-03 | $1.13470 | $1.08220 | $1.14540 |
| 2026-07-04 | $1.15720 | $1.13130 | $1.18400 |
| 2026-07-05 | $1.15710 | $1.12480 | $1.16970 |
| 2026-07-06 | $1.14410 | $1.10900 | $1.16420 |
| 2026-07-07 | $1.11130 | $1.10700 | $1.15120 |
| 2026-07-08 | $1.09060 | $1.06920 | $1.11610 |
| 2026-07-09 | $1.09320 | $1.08240 | $1.10240 |
| 2026-07-10 | $1.10430 | $1.08900 | $1.11810 |
| 2026-07-11 | $1.09640 | $1.09640 | $1.11910 |
| 2026-07-12 | $1.08550 | $1.08020 | $1.10360 |
| 2026-07-13 | $1.06680 | $1.05300 | $1.10200 |
| 2026-07-14 | $1.11120 | $1.06060 | $1.12040 |
| 2026-07-15 | $1.11270 | $1.09850 | $1.12970 |
Modelled liquidation density → · Size a position against a stop →