Liquidation map

Where liquidation levels would sit if positions were opened the way the assumptions below describe — and, the part that matters, where price has already cleared them. The dark corridor the price path carves through the field is not empty space; it is the levels the market has already taken out. This is a model, and it is labelled as one inside the picture, not only underneath it.

Modelled notional standing at a price, at a moment. Colour tops out at the busiest 0.5% of the map so one dominant cluster cannot drag everything else to the floor; the most crowded spot holds $1.1M. A band ends where price trades through it — drawn in white, both as scars on the field and as the strip beneath — or fades out in four steps as the positions behind it age past the 14-day position life. Hover any point for the value band it sits in.

Hourly candles to 17:00 UTC, refreshed every 2 hours and drawn here in 4-hour steps. The dashed line is the live mark, $0.39996, from a snapshot 0 minutes old. Two different ages, so neither is allowed to stand for the other.

$25.3Mmodelled notional price traded through inside this window

3.01%of modelled notional sits outside the drawn price range

$0.39692 – $1.37310the range that actually traded in this window

This surface is a model, and the assumptions below drive it. No venue publishes the distribution of open positions by leverage and entry price, so nobody can observe this — not us, and not anyone shipping a similar picture. Change the leverage mix in the form above and the bands move: that is the honest version of being handed someone else's Model 1, 2 and 3. What is not modelled is the price path drawn over the field, and the claim the picture actually supports is a checkable one — that price traded through where the model puts levels. See it happen on 5 February 2026 →

The assumptions, in full

#	Assumption	Value used	Observed or assumed
1	Total notional modelled	Equal to current open interest, $9.45M	observed
2	When positions were opened	Spread over the bars of the window in proportion to each bar's traded volume	observed
3	Leverage mix	Balanced — Weight spread across the range, tilted slightly to the middle. A deliberately unopinionated default.	assumed
4	Direction	Half long, half short at every leverage	assumed
5	How long a position stays open	A bounded life of 14 days, decaying in four tranches. Removed earlier if price trades through its level.	assumed
6	Maintenance margin	10.000% at tier 1, from the published table	observed
7	Positions before the window opens	84 bars before the chart starts are modelled off-screen, so the first drawn column already holds a full position-life window of positions	assumed
8	Drawn price range	Fitted to the traded range, $0.39692–$1.37310, plus headroom. 3.01% of modelled notional liquidates further away than this and is not drawn.	observed

Row 8 is the one most worth reading twice. Tying the axis to what actually traded is what gives the price path presence — the previous version spanned a third of the price to accommodate 2× levels half a market away, and flattened real movement into a squiggle. A minimum of ±8% stops a very quiet window from zooming into noise, and in a quiet window it is that minimum rather than the traded range that sets the axis. Either way the cost is that low-leverage levels fall off the picture. Here that is 2×.

Leverage mix used: Balanced

The exact weight vector behind the picture. Every other profile is one form submission away.

Leverage	Share of notional	Modelled notional	Long liquidation, % from mark
2×	9.00%	$850,822	−44.4%
5×	19.00%	$1.80M	−11.1%

Where the model puts the biggest clusters

Price levels still carrying modelled notional at the right-hand edge of the chart, largest first — $3.06M across the ten listed. These are the numbers the bright bands stand for.

Price	Distance from mark	Side closed	Modelled notional	Share of open interest
$0.39350	-1.70%	longs	$404,888	4.28%
$0.73166	+82.78%	shorts	$375,219	3.97%
$0.77098	+92.60%	shorts	$318,239	3.37%
$0.36991	-7.59%	longs	$297,681	3.15%
$0.37778	-5.63%	longs	$287,750	3.04%
$0.49574	+23.84%	shorts	$285,651	3.02%
$0.36205	-9.56%	longs	$279,370	2.96%
$0.38564	-3.66%	longs	$271,413	2.87%
$0.74739	+86.71%	shorts	$270,307	2.86%
$0.73952	+84.74%	shorts	$264,777	2.80%

How far price can move before each leverage liquidates — derived, not modelled

No assumptions here. Given the tier table and a mark these prices are arithmetic: the upper cap is where a short is closed, the lower cap where a long is closed.

Leverage	Initial margin	Long liquidation	Move down	Short liquidation	Move up	Corridor width
5× · max	20.00%	$0.35552	−11.11%	$0.43632	+9.09%	20.20%
4×	25.00%	$0.33330	−16.67%	$0.45450	+13.64%	30.30%
3×	33.33%	$0.29627	−25.93%	$0.48480	+21.21%	47.14%
2×	50.00%	$0.22220	−44.44%	$0.54540	+36.36%	80.81%

Where KAITO's margin tiers step down

Maintenance margin is set by the tier the notional falls in.

Tier	Notional from	Max leverage	Maintenance margin
1 · charted	$0	5×	10.000%

What is deliberately absent

No liquidation totals and no cascade tracker. Those need an event feed, and every available one is throttled — Binance publishes at most one liquidation per symbol per second, so a sum over it understates by an unknown factor, worst exactly when the number is most quoted. The full reasoning →

The 5 February sweep, on real candles → · Leverage survival — nothing modelled → · KAITO funding and margin tiers →