Liquidation map

Where liquidation levels would sit if positions were opened the way the assumptions below describe — and, the part that matters, where price has already cleared them. The dark corridor the price path carves through the field is not empty space; it is the levels the market has already taken out. This is a model, and it is labelled as one inside the picture, not only underneath it.

Modelled notional standing at a price, at a moment. Colour tops out at the busiest 0.5% of the map so one dominant cluster cannot drag everything else to the floor; the most crowded spot holds $2.7M. A band ends where price trades through it — drawn in white, both as scars on the field and as the strip beneath — or fades out in four steps as the positions behind it age past the 14-day position life. Hover any point for the value band it sits in.

Hourly candles to 17:00 UTC, refreshed every 2 hours and drawn here in 4-hour steps. The dashed line is the live mark, $0.99960, from a snapshot 2 minutes old. Two different ages, so neither is allowed to stand for the other.

$81.1Mmodelled notional price traded through inside this window

46.86%of modelled notional sits outside the drawn price range

$0.99107 – $1.16390the range that actually traded in this window

This surface is a model, and the assumptions below drive it. No venue publishes the distribution of open positions by leverage and entry price, so nobody can observe this — not us, and not anyone shipping a similar picture. Change the leverage mix in the form above and the bands move: that is the honest version of being handed someone else's Model 1, 2 and 3. What is not modelled is the price path drawn over the field, and the claim the picture actually supports is a checkable one — that price traded through where the model puts levels. See it happen on 5 February 2026 →

The assumptions, in full

#	Assumption	Value used	Observed or assumed
1	Total notional modelled	Equal to current open interest, $113.94M	observed
2	When positions were opened	Spread over the bars of the window in proportion to each bar's traded volume	observed
3	Leverage mix	Balanced — Weight spread across the range, tilted slightly to the middle. A deliberately unopinionated default.	assumed
4	Direction	Half long, half short at every leverage	assumed
5	How long a position stays open	A bounded life of 14 days, decaying in four tranches. Removed earlier if price trades through its level.	assumed
6	Maintenance margin	2.500% at tier 1, from the published table	observed
7	Positions before the window opens	84 bars before the chart starts are modelled off-screen, so the first drawn column already holds a full position-life window of positions	assumed
8	Drawn price range	Fitted to the traded range, $0.99107–$1.16390, plus headroom. 46.86% of modelled notional liquidates further away than this and is not drawn.	observed

Row 8 is the one most worth reading twice. Tying the axis to what actually traded is what gives the price path presence — the previous version spanned a third of the price to accommodate 2× levels half a market away, and flattened real movement into a squiggle. A minimum of ±8% stops a very quiet window from zooming into noise, and in a quiet window it is that minimum rather than the traded range that sets the axis. Either way the cost is that low-leverage levels fall off the picture. Here that is 2×, 5× and 10×.

Leverage mix used: Balanced

The exact weight vector behind the picture. Every other profile is one form submission away.

Leverage	Share of notional	Modelled notional	Long liquidation, % from mark
2×	9.00%	$10.25M	−48.7%
5×	19.00%	$21.65M	−17.9%
10×	27.00%	$30.76M	−7.7%
20×	22.00%	$25.07M	−2.6%

Where the model puts the biggest clusters

Price levels still carrying modelled notional at the right-hand edge of the chart, largest first — $14.99M across the ten listed. These are the numbers the bright bands stand for.

Price	Distance from mark	Side closed	Modelled notional	Share of open interest
$1.09907	+9.53%	shorts	$1.82M	1.60%
$1.08793	+8.42%	shorts	$1.82M	1.59%
$1.07957	+7.59%	shorts	$1.67M	1.46%
$0.98768	-1.57%	longs	$1.61M	1.42%
$0.98072	-2.26%	longs	$1.50M	1.31%
$1.03084	+2.73%	shorts	$1.41M	1.23%
$1.04894	+4.54%	shorts	$1.37M	1.20%
$1.03920	+3.57%	shorts	$1.30M	1.14%
$0.99743	-0.60%	longs	$1.28M	1.13%
$1.08932	+8.56%	shorts	$1.22M	1.07%

How far price can move before each leverage liquidates — derived, not modelled

No assumptions here. Given the tier table and a mark these prices are arithmetic: the upper cap is where a short is closed, the lower cap where a long is closed.

Leverage	Initial margin	Long liquidation	Move down	Short liquidation	Move up	Corridor width
20× · max	5.00%	$0.97397	−2.56%	$1.02398	+2.44%	5.00%
15×	6.67%	$0.95688	−4.27%	$1.04023	+4.07%	8.34%
12×	8.33%	$0.93979	−5.98%	$1.05649	+5.69%	11.67%
10×	10.00%	$0.92271	−7.69%	$1.07274	+7.32%	15.01%
8×	12.50%	$0.89708	−10.26%	$1.09712	+9.76%	20.01%
6×	16.67%	$0.85436	−14.53%	$1.13776	+13.82%	28.35%
5×	20.00%	$0.82018	−17.95%	$1.17026	+17.07%	35.02%

Where XRP's margin tiers step down

Maintenance margin is set by the tier the notional falls in. Above $40.00M the corridor widens, because maintenance margin rises to 5.000%.

Tier	Notional from	Max leverage	Maintenance margin
1 · charted	$0	20×	2.500%
2	$40.00M	10×	5.000%

What is deliberately absent

No liquidation totals and no cascade tracker. Those need an event feed, and every available one is throttled — Binance publishes at most one liquidation per symbol per second, so a sum over it understates by an unknown factor, worst exactly when the number is most quoted. The full reasoning →

The 5 February sweep, on real candles → · Leverage survival — nothing modelled → · XRP funding and margin tiers →